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China Consumer: China Sportswear Online Monitor Summary

Core Content Overview

This document provides an analysis of the performance of China's online sportswear market in May 2025, highlighting trends, brand performance, and investment implications. The report underscores the shift in consumer behavior, the role of e-commerce, and the impact of the 6.18 shopping festival on sales patterns. It also discusses how different brands are responding to market changes and their respective growth trajectories.

Key Market Trends

• Online Sportswear Growth: China's online sportswear sales grew by 7% in May, a deceleration from the 14% growth in April and the 20% year-to-date (YTD) trend.
• 6.18 Shopping Festival Impact: The pre-sales for the 6.18 festival are being pulled forward into May, indicating soft demand for sportswear ahead of the event.
• E-commerce Dominance: E-commerce now accounts for over 35% of China's total sportswear market, showing a strong correlation with overall market growth.
• Douyin as a Growth Engine: Douyin has emerged as the primary growth engine, accounting for approximately 42% of online sportswear GMV. It is becoming a key channel for reaching younger, price-conscious consumers.

Brand Performance Overview

Nike

• Online Sales: Grew 7% YTD, driven by a shift in mix from Jordan and Converse to Nike.
• Jordan: YTD growth was -64%, with a significant drop in sales.
• Converse: YTD growth was +7%, showing a slight improvement.
• Offline Sales: Continued to decline, with Pou Sheng's monthly sales at -7% YTD, though improved sequentially to -3% in May.
• Investment Rating: Outperform

Adidas

• YTD Growth: Achieved +67% growth, off a low base, with strong outperformance in Performance and Lifestyle segments.
• Terrace Franchise: Benefited from global trends, contributing to growth.
• Investment Rating: Outperform

Anta

• YTD Growth: Grew +8%, with Fila contributing +33% and Fila Fusion +81%.
• Offline Concerns: Soft offline demand raises margin pressure, but initiatives like Anta Palace and product mix enhancements aim to mitigate this.
• Investment Rating: Market-Perform

Li Ning

• YTD Growth: Grew +17%, but decelerated from +15% in May.
• Offline Weakness: Weaker offline performance and competition from Nike and Adidas challenge its growth.
• Investment Rating: Underperform

Amer Sports

• YTD Growth: Grew +43%, with Salomon and Arc'teryx driving the growth.
• Douyin Penetration: Lower than top brands, consistent with its premium positioning.
• Investment Rating: Outperform

Lululemon and On

• Strong Growth: Both brands showed strong YTD growth (Lululemon: +33%, On: +160%), driven by increasing awareness and trial.
• Macro-Immune: Expected to continue strong growth, mostly unaffected by macroeconomic conditions.
• Investment Rating: Outperform

Other Brands

• Skechers: Mixed performance with online growth and offline decline.
• VF Corp: Showed varied growth across brands, with The North Face and Vans performing better.
• Asics and Puma: Both showed positive growth, though not as strong as Lululemon and On.
• Under Armour and Columbia: Experienced declines in sales, with Under Armour being more affected.
• Xtep: Mixed performance with strong growth in some sub-brands and weaker in others.
• 361 Degrees and Qiaodan: Showed mixed results, with some growth and some decline.

Investment Implications

• Outperform Brands: Amer, Nike, Adidas, Lululemon, and On are rated Outperform due to their strong online presence, effective strategies, and market adaptability.
• Market-Perform Brand: Anta is rated Market-Perform, with a focus on improving offline performance and maintaining its market share.
• Underperform Brand: Li Ning is rated Underperform, due to its weaker performance and reliance on discounts.

Summary of Key Points

• Online Sportswear Growth: Continued to outperform the overall retail trend, driven by consumer preference for value.
• Douyin's Role: Dominates the online sportswear market, offering lower price points and reaching younger demographics.
• Brand Strategies: Brands with strong online strategies, effective product offerings, and healthy inventory are better positioned for growth.
• Market Share Shifts: Some brands are gaining market share, while others are losing it, especially those relying on traditional e-commerce platforms.
• Future Outlook: Brands like Lululemon and On are expected to maintain strong growth, while Li Ning and Anta face challenges in offline recovery.

Conclusion

The online sportswear market in China is experiencing a slowdown, with May growth at 7% compared to 14% in April. The shift to digital platforms, particularly Douyin, is a significant trend, and brands that adapt well to this shift are likely to outperform. Nike and Adidas are showing strong performance, while Li Ning and Anta are facing challenges. The investment outlook is positive for brands that are effectively leveraging online channels and maintaining a competitive edge.