2025-06-17-Bernstein-中国运动服装线上监测_5月趋势放缓_18页_526kb

China Online Sportswear Market Trends (May 2025 Summary)

Overall Market Performance

• Growth Deceleration: Online sportswear sales in May 2025 grew 7% YoY, a slowdown from 14% in April and 20% YTD. The trend reflects lower consumer demand and the impact of the 6.18 shopping festival pre-sales shifting into May.
• Offline Weakness: Chinese consumers prioritize value, favoring online platforms. Offline demand remains soft, contributing to margin pressures for brands with heavy physical presence.

Channel Shift & Key Trends

• Douyin Dominance: Douyin now accounts for ~43% of online sportswear GMV (+11 pts YoY), emerging as the primary growth driver. It offers lower price points and access to a younger demographic.
• E-commerce Share: Online platforms now represent ~35% of China's total sportswear market, a rise of 200 bps YoY.

Brand Performance

• Nike: YTD growth +7% driven by +20% online sales (down from Jordan's -64% YoY).
• Adidas: Strong YTD growth +67% as it recaptures market share via lifestyle and performance segments.
• Anta/Fila: Fila drives +31% YTD growth; Anta (+8% YoY) benefits from e-commerce but faces concerns over offline recovery.
• Li-Ning: Sales flat +7% YoY, hampered by soft consumer demand and intensified competition, though e-commerce channels support growth.
• Lululemon/On: International brands like Lululemon (+357% GMV YoY) and On (-+160% YTD) show robust growth due to rapid awareness and trial in China.

Investment Implications

• Outperform: Amer (-), Nike (-), Adidas (-), Lululemon (-), On (-).
• Market-Perform: Anta (-).
• Underperform: Li Ning (-).

Market Dynamics

• Product Segments: Sneakers (+27% YTD) and apparel (+29% YTD) lead growth, while discounts rise as brands compete.
• Channel Split: Douyin captures 28% of GMV versus 54% for Taobao/Tmall.