20240722-安信国际证券-兖煤澳大利亚-03668.HK-二季度符合预期_5页_1mb

11本报告版权属于安信国际证券(香港)有限公司。各项声明请参见报告尾页。二季度符合预期事件：公司发布二季度运营报告，二季度平均煤炭价格为181澳元/吨，环比基本持平。其中动力煤平均销售价格163澳元/吨，环比上涨3%；冶金煤平均销售价格318澳元/吨，环比下降5%。实现煤炭销量86百万吨，环比增加3%。公司上半年实现煤炭销售价格180澳元/吨，同比下降35%；实现煤炭销量169百万吨，同比增长18%。整体上半年公司经营表现稳健。

报告指出，2024年第二季度商品煤权益产量为82百万吨，同比降4%，环比降7%，主要受天气和开采计划影响。预计下半年产量将持续恢复。库存方面，一季度库存偏高，二季度已恢复正常，全年产量指引维持在3500-3900百万吨。平均销售价格持稳，预计全年市场平衡。成本方面，公司现金经营成本保持在89-97澳元/吨，二季度煤炭价格相当于成本下限的两倍，显示出良好的利润率。

公司具有竞争优势的成本结构和庞大的现金头寸（截至2024年6月30日有155亿澳元现金）强化了其在当前市场下的竞争力。在股息政策方面，公司承诺每年派发不少于税后净利润或自由现金流的50%。安信国际维持"买入"评级，目标价432港元，基于2025年7倍P/E倍数。预测2024、2025年每股收益分别为105澳元、119澳元。

风险提示包括需求不及预期、煤价快速下行及产销不达预期等问题。

原文：
11本报告版权属于安信国际证券(香港)有限公司。各项声明请参见报告尾页。The copyright of this report belongs to AMERSE International Securities (Hong Kong) Limited. Please refer to the last page of the report for all declarations.

Second-quarter events in line with expectations: The company released its second-quarter operational report. The average coal price for the quarter was 181 AUD/ton, remaining relatively stable month-over-month. Specifically, the average sales price for thermal coal was 163 AUD/ton, up 3% year-over-year; for metcoal, it was 318 AUD/ton, down 5% year-over-year. Coal volumes reached 86 million tons, an increase of 3% month-over-month. For the first half of the year, the average coal sales price was 180 AUD/ton, down 35% year-over-year; coal volumes totaled 169 million tons, up 18% year-over-year. Overall, the company's performance in the first half has been steady.

According to the report, Arc Alaska's second-quarter production of marketable coal reached 82 million tons, a decline of 4% year-over-year and 7% month-over-month, primarily due to weather impacts including excessive rainfall and adjustments to mining plans. Output is expected to resume in the latter half of the year, particularly for the Hunter Valley and Moriville mines. Inventory levels, which were elevated in the first quarter due to rail derailed incidents, have normalized in the second quarter. Production guidance for the year remains unchanged at 3500-3900 million tons. The average sales price has remained relatively stable, with an expected balance throughout the year. Company second-quarter average coal prices stabilized in the third quarter last year, with high-base effects likely to diminish.

The thermal coal market has reached a supply-demand balance, with sustained demand but still high terminal inventory levels. Looking long-term, domestic thermal coal is expected to maintain relative balance. Additionally, the metcoal market has also stabilized. Cost guidance remains unchanged, with profitability maintained at high levels. The company’s production cash cost guidance of AUD 89-97/ton remains consistent. The second-quarter coal selling prices, nearly double the benchmark, indicate strong profitability. With low-cost mines, Arc Alaska boasts a superior cost advantage within the Australian industry and a significant cash position.

Arc Alaska reaffirms its attractive dividend policy. The company commits to distributing no less than 50% of post-tax earnings or free cash flow (excluding extraordinary items) annually. Holding onto a cash balance of AUD 15.5 billion as of June 30, 2024, the firm bolstered its cash creation and competitive capabilities in the current market environment.

Maintaining a "Buy" rating, AMERSE sets a target price of HKD 432 per share, given 7x P/E for 2025. Forecasting 2024/2025 EPS at AUD 105/119, the valuation offers a special deal against industry benchmarks. Assuming 52 HKD/AUD for currency, the target price remains at HKD 432 (current share price is HKD 347). (Currency assumption: 1 AUD = 52 HKD)

Risks include: below-expectation demand; sharp declines in coal prices; and unsatisfactory sales-volume performance.
(12月31日年结；百万澳元)

Historical financial data covers periods 2021A to 2023A, while projections span 2024E to 2025E.