2016年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Uganda_Sixth_Review_Under_the_Policy_Support_Instrument_and_Request_for_a_One_74页_1mb

Uganda: Sixth Review Under the Policy Support Instrument and Request for One-Year Extension

Core Content Summary

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) completed the sixth review under Uganda's Policy Support Instrument (PSI) and approved a one-year extension of the program. This decision was made to support policy continuity and allow sufficient time for ongoing structural reforms.

Key Documents

• Press Release: Announced the completion of the sixth PSI review and the approval of the one-year extension.
• Staff Report: Prepared by the IMF team for the Executive Board's consideration, completed on May 20, 2016, following discussions with Ugandan officials from March 21 to April 6, 2016.
• Informational Annex: Provides additional context and analysis.
• Statement by the Executive Director for Uganda: Highlights the IMF's assessment and recommendations.

Main Findings

Economic Performance

• Uganda's economy showed resilience amid external shocks and election-related uncertainty, with robust GDP growth, low inflation, and strong international reserves.
• GDP growth in FY2015/16 was supported by large public investments, particularly in hydropower projects.
• Headline and core inflation decelerated to 5.1% and 6.4% in April 2016, respectively, compared to 8.5% and 7.6% in December 2015.
• The shilling appreciated by over 10% from March 2016, helped by improved market sentiment and a more benign external environment.
• The current account deficit is expected to widen to 9.7% of GDP in FY2015/16 due to weak export performance and increased infrastructure-related imports.

Fiscal Policy

• The underlying deficit for FY2015/16 was higher than expected due to election-related revenue and expenditure slippages, but remains comfortably financed.
• The FY2016/17 budget aims to reinforce fiscal prudence through enhanced revenue mobilization and reduced recurrent expenditures.
• The overall deficit is projected to slightly decline to 6.2% of GDP in FY2016/17, with a focus on boosting public investment and poverty-alleviating spending.
• Revenue targets for FY2016/17 include a 0.5% of GDP increase, achieved through tax policy reforms and administrative improvements.

Structural Reforms

• Implementation of structural reforms has been mixed, with delays in publishing quarterly reports on unpaid bills, sending the Charter for Fiscal Responsibility to parliament, and finalizing the Bank of Uganda Act amendments.
• The authorities are urged to expedite the passage of the Public Financial Management Act regulations, reconcile domestic arrears, and finalize the fiscal responsibility charter to improve governance and strengthen the budget process.

Monetary Policy

• The Bank of Uganda eased monetary policy by reducing the central bank rate (CBR) by 100 basis points in April 2016, following improved inflationary outlook and market confidence.
• Interest rates are expected to decline further as the policy rate adjustment is transmitted to the market, easing credit conditions.
• The central bank rate and interbank rates have declined, but lending rates have yet to react.

Risks and Outlook

• Risks to the economic outlook are tilted to the downside, including adverse weather, global political and economic uncertainties, and post-election fiscal pressures.
• However, long-term prospects remain favorable, supported by future oil production, increased regional integration, and implementation of infrastructure projects.
• The economy is projected to grow at 5.5% in FY2016/17, with core inflation converging towards the 5% medium-term target.

Key Recommendations

• Fiscal: Continue prudent fiscal management, enhance revenue mobilization, and maintain focus on poverty-alleviating and infrastructure spending.
• Structural Reforms: Accelerate the implementation of reforms in public financial management, tax administration, and legal frameworks.
• Monetary Policy: Continue to monitor inflation and adjust monetary policy accordingly, ensuring stability while supporting growth.
• Financial Sector: Strengthen prudential supervision and ensure regulatory oversight keeps pace with financial innovation.

Supporting Documents

• Letter of Intent: Sent by the Ugandan authorities to the IMF.
• Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies: Outlines the country's policy objectives.
• Technical Memorandum of Understanding: Details the terms of the PSI arrangement.

Conclusion

The IMF approved the extension of the PSI program to ensure policy continuity and support structural reforms. Despite some shortfalls in fiscal performance, the economy remains resilient, with macroeconomic stability and growth prospects supported by ongoing reforms and future oil revenues.