2013年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Uganda_2013_Article_IV_Consultation_and_Sixth_Review_Under_the_Policy_Support_Instrument_Request_for_a_Three_104页_2mb

Uganda: 2013 Article IV Consultation and Sixth Review Under the Policy Support Instrument Summary

Core Content

This document outlines the results of the 2013 Article IV consultation with Uganda and the Sixth Review under the Policy Support Instrument (PSI), including the request for a new three-year PSI and the cancellation of the current one. It contains the staff report, a Public Information Notice (PIN), a Press Release, and a statement by the Executive Director for Uganda. The staff report presents the IMF's assessment of Uganda's economic performance, policy stance, and structural reforms, while the PIN summarizes the Executive Board's views.

Key Issues and Main Points

Macroeconomic Performance

• Inflation: Inflation has declined sharply, reaching close to the 5% target level by May 2013, after peaking at over 30% in 2011.
• Growth: Real GDP growth is recovering from a historical low, reaching 5% in FY2012/13 and projected to increase to 5.25% in FY2013/14 and 6% in FY2014/15.
• International Reserves: Reserves have increased significantly, surpassing the target by a large margin. They are expected to remain at a comfortable level of 4 months of imports.
• Current Account Deficit: The deficit is projected to narrow to 10.5% of GDP in FY2012/13 due to strong non-coffee exports and reduced imports.

Policy Adjustments

• Fiscal Policy: The fiscal stance is projected to loosen slightly, with a deficit of 3% of GDP. Tax revenue increased, and some one-off factors were addressed.
• Monetary Policy: The Bank of Uganda (BoU) focused on inflation targeting, reducing the policy rate from 23% in 2012 to 12% in 2013, and further to 11% in June 2013.
• Exchange Rate Management: High foreign exchange inflows led to temporary appreciation pressures, but the BoU intervened to maintain stability. Sterilization operations were used to manage liquidity, though they increased the BoU's obligations at a rising cost.

Structural Reforms

• Progress: Some structural reforms were advanced, including the abolition of electricity subsidies, improvements in tax administration, and PFM reforms.
• Challenges: Delays occurred in areas such as avoiding domestic arrears, transparency in fiscal operations, and sanctioning officials involved in the fraud scandal.
• PFM Reforms: The government took steps to strengthen spending controls and amend the Public Finance Management Bill (PFMB). However, the full implementation of the TSA and new tax procedures code is still pending.

Oil Revenues and Economic Diversification

• Oil Production: Expected to start in 2018, oil revenues could boost growth but require careful management to avoid misuse.
• Economic Diversification: The government is focusing on infrastructure development and private sector growth to reduce reliance on donor aid.

New Policy Support Instrument (PSI)

• Request: Uganda requested a new three-year PSI to support ongoing reforms.
• Objectives: The new PSI will support institutional reforms, including modernizing the inflation targeting framework, enhancing revenue mobilization, improving PFM, and developing the financial sector.
• Cancellation: The current PSI will be canceled immediately upon the completion of the sixth review.

Risks and Challenges

• External Shocks: Volatility in growth, inflation, and exchange rates was influenced by external shocks and policy slippages.
• Domestic Shocks: Risks include potential delays in implementing key projects, challenges in managing oil revenues, and the impact of corruption on reform progress.
• Political Risks: Political decisions could affect spending quality, delay reforms, or reduce donor support.

Program Performance

• Quantitative Assessment Criteria (QACs): All QACs for end-December 2012 were met, and most indicative targets for end-March 2013 were achieved.
• Structural Benchmarks: Progress was mixed, with some benchmarks missed, particularly those related to domestic arrears and transparency. These will be maintained under the new PSI.
• PFM Reforms: Donors acknowledged progress in repaying misappropriated funds and improving controls, though administrative sanctions against officials remain incomplete.

Institutional Reforms

• Inflation Targeting: A clearer plan is in place to implement a full inflation targeting framework, with the BoU showing commitment to price stability.
• Financial Sector Development: The BoU has made progress in moving towards risk-based supervision, though the sector remains shallow.
• Public Financial Management (PFM): Reforms to improve transparency and efficiency are ongoing, with the new PFMB expected to enhance governance and budget credibility.

Conclusion

The IMF staff supports Uganda's request for a new three-year PSI, which will replace the current one. The new arrangement aims to enhance institutional capacity and support sustainable growth. Despite progress, challenges remain in implementing structural reforms and managing oil revenues. The political environment is seen as supportive of the reform agenda, but risks persist from both external and domestic factors.