2025-06-05-Jefferies-信实工业（RELIANCE）_增长回归_19页_1mb
报告摘要
Reliance Industries Equity Research Summary
Date: June 5, 2025
Analysts: Bhaskar Chakraborty, Vivek Maheshwari, Akshat Agarwal, Rajesh Kumar, Ayush Bansal
Rating: Buy
Price Target: ₹1,650 (+16% upside)
Executive Summary
- The stock has outperformed the Nifty index by 12% YTD and trades below the mean valuation.
- Target price is ₹1,650 based on a Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuation, leaving room for further re-rating.
Key Highlights
- Retail Segment: Retail growth is resuming at mid-teens after a YoY dip, driven by SSG improvements. Management expects floor space expansion in FY26.
- Jio: Jio expected to achieve 18-21% CAGR in revenue/EBITDA over FY25-27. A 10x jump in Free Cash Flow (FCFE) will support premium valuation.
- Energy & Petchem: Refining margins and petchem spreads are recovering; US gasoline offerings buoyed by seasonal demand.
- Valuation: Current EV/EBITDA is 11.6x vs. the 5-year average of 10.5x, implying scope for multiple expansion.
Financial Projections
| Segment | FY25E (B INR) | FY26E (B INR) | FY27E (B INR) | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jio | ~₹742,738 | ~₹888,510 | ~₹968,510 | Higher ARPU/subscribers |
| Retail | ~₹271,349 | ~₹314,147 | ~₹341,729 | Expansion, SSG |
| Refining/Petchem | ~₹1,654.4 | ~₹1,829.4 | ~₹2,024.9 | Moderate capex, margin expansion |
| Energy | ~₹771,658 | ~₹771,658 | ~₹771,658 | FCF reinvestment |
Analyst Recommendations
- Up Side: Digital growth (Jio), retail expansion, O2C recovery.
- Down Side: Slower telecom monetization, structural losses in petchem/refining, e-commerce cash burn.
Risk Factors
- Geopolitical risks affecting gas/oil prices.
- Exceeding growth targets in e-commerce/net energy investments.
- Regulatory issues in telecom.
Catalysts
- Jio home broadband subscriber growth.
- Retail infrastructure expansion.
- Multiple expansion if earnings visibility improves further.
Source: Jefferies Equity Research, June 5, 2025.
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