2025-06-05-Jefferies-无,无,无（4478）_更新freee_MoneyForward和Rakus的盈利预测_28页_1mb

Summary of Earnings Update for freee, MoneyForward and Rakus

Core Content Overview

This document provides an update on the earnings estimates and price targets for freee (4478 JP), MoneyForward (3994 JP), and Rakus (3923 JP), with a focus on their SaaS business performance and valuation metrics. The key trends include profitability improvement, margin targets, and the potential for shareholder returns.

Key Information

freee (4478 JP)

• Rating: Buy
• Price Target: ¥5,000 (up from ¥4,210)
• Valuation: EV/Sales 6x based on FY6/26 estimates
• Performance:
  • Generated an operating profit this FY
  • Maintained operating profit for the first 9 months of the year
  • Targeting 25-30% CAGR in top-line growth for FY26-FY27
  • Focused on margin improvements and cross-selling progress
• Earnings Update:
  • FY6/26 sales growth: +28.3% YoY
  • FY6/26 operating profit: ¥43.81 billion
  • FY6/26 EBITDA: ¥5,000 million

MoneyForward (3994 JP)

• Rating: Buy
• Price Target: ¥6,000 (up from ¥4,794)
• Valuation:
  • EV/Sales 6x based on FY11/25 estimates
  • EV/Sales 4.8x based on FY11/26 estimates
  • Positioned at a discount compared to freee
• Performance:
  • Aiming to generate an operating profit in the next FY
  • Expected to start paying dividends once profitability is achieved
  • Plans to invest in branding and advertising
  • Mid-layer corporate ARR is expected to grow
• Earnings Update:
  • FY11/26 sales growth: +25.9% YoY
  • FY11/26 operating profit: ¥50.74 billion
  • FY11/26 EBITDA: ¥1,046 million
  • FY11/26 EBITDA margin: 30%+

Rakus (3923 JP)

• Rating: Hold
• Price Target: ¥2,400 (up from ¥2,280)
• Valuation:
  • EV/Sales 7x based on FY3/26 estimates
  • Positioned at a premium to the other two stocks
• Performance:
  • Focused on margin improvements under the new mid-term plan
  • Targeting SaaS Rule 50% (up from 40%)
  • Expected to improve operating margin by 4.5 points YoY
• Earnings Update:
  • FY3/26 sales growth: +21.9% YoY
  • FY3/26 operating profit: ¥79.79 billion
  • FY3/26 EBITDA: ¥1,046 million
  • FY3/26 EBITDA margin: 7.5%

Main Trends and Insights

• Profitability Improvement: All three companies are moving towards profitability, with freee already achieving it this FY and MoneyForward targeting next FY.
• Valuation Metrics:
  • The EV/Sales ratio is used as the primary valuation method
  • Freee and MoneyForward are valued at 6x, while Rakus is at 7x
  • MoneyForward is at a discount when using FY11/26 estimates
• Margin Targets:
  • Rakus aims for a 4.5pt improvement in operating margin
  • MoneyForward is targeting a 30%+ EBITDA margin by end of FY28
• Shareholder Returns:
  • Both freee and MoneyForward are expected to start paying dividends once operating profits are achieved
• Macro Trends:
  • The DX shift is ongoing for SMEs in Japan
  • Concerns about potential shifts in IT investment priorities due to rising prices
  • Otsuka Corp (4768 JP) is noted as a top reseller for IT in Japan

Key Changes

Valuation Comparison (Exhibit 2)

Financial Highlights

• freee:
  • Sales growth: +28.3% YoY
  • Operating profit: ¥43.81 billion
  • EBITDA: ¥5,000 million
• MoneyForward:
  • Sales growth: +25.9% YoY
  • Operating profit: ¥50.74 billion
  • EBITDA: ¥1,046 million
• Rakus:
  • Sales growth: +21.9% YoY
  • Operating profit: ¥79.79 billion
  • EBITDA: ¥1,046 million

Key Monitoring Items

• freee:
  • KPIs and cross-selling progress
  • Continued margin improvements
• MoneyForward:
  • H2 outlook and aggressive spending on promotions
  • Impact of price hikes on results
  • AI product development and internal impacts
• Rakus:
  • Margin improvements and core business focus
  • Sale of IT Outsourcing business in FY3/26

Conclusion

The SaaS sector in Japan is showing signs of improvement in profitability and margin. freee and MoneyForward are both positioned for growth and profitability, with freee already profitable and MoneyForward expected to turn positive in the next FY. Rakus is focused on margin improvements and is valued at a premium compared to the others. All three companies are expected to benefit from the ongoing DX shift among SMEs, though macroeconomic factors like price increases may affect their progress. The valuation approach remains EV/Sales, with an emphasis on comparing with other SaaS stocks.