2025-05-15-Jefferies-柒和伊控股公司（3382）_更新预测_12页_597kb

Japan Retailers Equity Research: Seven & i Holdings Co., Ltd. (3382 JP)

Rating & Target:

• Equity Research Rating: HOLD with a Price Target (PT) of ¥2,000. Previous PT was ¥2,237 (down -11%).
• Estimate Change: Earnings estimates revised; FY26E EBIT profit ¥438bn (+4% YoY), FY27E ¥451bn (+3.1% YoY).

Key Financial Highlights:

• Q1 Performance:
  • CPG sales reached 35.5¢, down 2.8% YoY.
  • Gas profit expected -4.4% YoY.
  • Merchandise SSS saw slight beating of internal targets, but overall CPG missed expectations.
• Domestic CVS: Underperformance compared to peers widened. Traffic growth slowed, but spend increased due to mid-priced items. Forecasted OP for current FY ¥247.4bn (+5.9% YoY).

US Business Projections:

• SEI (Seven-Eleven International):
  • OP $2,401m (+10.6% YoY) for FY26E, $2,419m (+0.7% YoY) for FY26F.
  • CPG 40.4¢ (-2.5% YoY), gas volume -0.6% leading to sales -6% YoY and -3% gas profit YoY.

Corporate Strategy & Risk/Reward:

• Major Drivers: Growth in overseas CVS driven by diversification, defensiveness in domestic earnings, and potential valuation uplift from divesting non-core assets and restructuring.
• Downside Risks:
  • Persistent domestic underperformance.
  • Persistently low merchandise SSS, global recession, restructuring delays, lost share to competitors, EC cannibalization.
• Upside Opportunities:
  • Synergies from acquisitions.
  • Continued outperformance in US business.

Valuation:

• SOTP (Sum of The Parts) Valuation: PT ¥2,000 bases on 8x EV/EBITDA (2026E), translating to 1.55x PER, marking a -11% move from prior PT.
• Chart Comparison: Benchmarked against sector median 9x EV/EBITDA, with scenarios including Upside (¥2,700 /9.7x) and Downside (¥1,100 /5.9x).

Final Summary:
Seven & i maintains a Hold rating due to slower domestic performance and elevated risks in the global environment, but benefits from a strong US business and potential upside from strategic restructuring/divestitures. Investors await responses to Couche-Tard's acquisition bid and further data on fuel and CPG recovery.