Upside Potential: ROBINS offers nearly 20% upside even under trough assumptions.
Valuation: The current share price is 36% lower than the previous 12 months, making it an attractive valuation.
PE Multiple: ROBINS trades at 20x 2014E PE, which is 300bps above regional peers but still competitive.
ROE: ROBINS has a higher ROE compared to peers, indicating strong profitability.
Store Network: ROBINS had 34 stores as of the end of 2013, with 10 in Bangkok and the rest in provinces.
Store Expansion: The company plans to open 4-5 new stores in 2014 and 2015, with four in Lifestyle Mall format and one inside a Central Commercial Complex.
Political Impact: The slowdown in consumption is politically-induced and is viewed as temporary.
SSSG Assumptions: Revised SSSG for 2013-2014 to 2.9-3.0% and expected to rise to 4.1% in 2015.
GP Increments: GP is expected to range between 22-35bps for 2013-2015, down from 30-40bps.
Earnings Downgrade: The share price correction is mainly due to earnings downgrade, which is expected to be nearly over.
DCF Valuation: Based on DCF, the fair value is THB53, suggesting a nearly 20% upside from current share price.
Financial Highlights
Metric
FY11A
FY12A
FY13E
FY14E
FY15E
Revenue (THB m)
19,075.4
23,392.6
27,555.0
32,820.5
38,102.1
EBITDA (THB m)
2,782.4
3,358.5
3,912.2
4,456.6
5,138.0
Core Net Profit (THB m)
1,453.0
2,063.2
2,181.3
2,450.8
2,819.9
Core FDEPS (THB)
1.31
1.86
1.96
2.21
2.54
Core FDEPS Growth (%)
-14.4
42.0
5.7
12.4
15.1
Net DPS (THB)
0.65
0.90
0.98
1.10
1.27
Core FD P/E (x)
34.4
24.2
22.9
20.4
17.7
P/BV (x)
5.7
5.0
4.4
4.0
3.5
Net Dividend Yield (%)
1.4
2.0
2.2
2.5
2.8
ROAE (%)
17.0
21.0
19.3
19.0
19.2
ROAA (%)
11.0
13.3
12.0
11.7
11.7
EV/EBITDA (x)
16.0
20.9
12.7
11.1
9.5
Net Debt/Equity (%)
Net cash
Net cash
Net cash
Net cash
Net cash
Key Data
52-week high/low (THB): 82.25 / 43.75
Free Float (%): 37.7
Issued Shares (m): 1,111
Market Capitalization: THB50.0B
Major Shareholders:
Central Group Co., Ltd. – 54%
CHIRATHIVAT SUTHILUK – 3%
NORRAPANLOP THAPIDA – 3%
Share Price Performance
Period
Absolute (%)
Relative to Country (%)
1 Mth
2.3
-3.1
3 Mth
-16.7
-7.9
12 Mth
-35.5
-25.2
Analyst Recommendations
Target Price (THB)
Positive
Neutral
Negative
Maybank Consensus
53.00
55.00
-3.6
2013 PATMI (THBm)
2,181
2,000
-9.1
2014 PATMI (THBm)
2,451
2,355
-4.1
Key Drivers of Share Price
SSSG (Same Store Sales Growth): A primary driver of share price performance.
New Store Openings: Expansion into Lifestyle Malls has driven growth.
Gross Margin Increments: In-house brands and margin sharing with suppliers have contributed to margin improvements.
Earnings and Profitability
Earnings Revision: Revised profit estimates are 2-6% lower than the average consensus forecast.
Pretax Profit (THB m):
FY11A: 2,202.1
FY12A: 2,695.6
FY13E: 2,992.7
FY14E: 3,365.9
FY15E: 3,881.0
Reported Net Profit (THB m):
FY11A: 1,453.0
FY12A: 1,944.2
FY13E: 2,181.3
FY14E: 2,450.8
FY15E: 2,819.9
Valuation Analysis
ROBINS is undervalued compared to its historical performance and regional peers.
P/E (Reported): 34.4, 25.7, 22.9, 20.4, 17.7
P/BV: 5.7, 5.0, 4.4, 4.0, 3.5
Net Dividend Yield: 1.4, 2.0, 2.2, 2.5, 2.8
ROAE: 17.0, 21.0, 19.3, 19.0, 19.2
ROAA: 11.0, 13.3, 12.0, 11.7, 11.7
EV/EBITDA: 16.0, 20.9, 12.7, 11.1, 9.5
Liquidity and Efficiency
Cash Conversion Cycle: Not mentioned
Days Receivable Outstanding: 13.2, 12.4, 11.7, 11.1, 10.1
Days Inventory Outstanding: 28.4, 27.5, 27.0, 26.9, 27.2
Days Payables Outstanding: 86.2, 86.6, 88.6, 88.2, 89.3
Dividend Cover (x): 2.0, 1.9, 2.0, 2.0, 2.0
Current Ratio (x): 1.0, 1.0, 0.5, 0.5, 0.6
Net Debt/Equity (%): Net cash in all years
Peer Valuation Comparison
Name
Country
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
ROE (%)
Yield (%)
ROBINSON DEPARTMENT STORE PU
TH
23.80
4.34
19.23
2.00
PARKSON RETAIL GROUP LTD
CH
9.78
1.14
9.05
3.71
NEW WORLD DEPT STORE CHINA
HK
9.70
0.95
10.19
4.72
SM PRIME HOLDINGS INC
PH
22.89
3.21
15.84
1.71
Matahari Department Store TB
ID
29.30
NA
NA
1.25
Ramayana Lestari Sentosa PT
ID
20.07
2.80
14.04
2.57
Average
-
19.26
2.49
13.67
2.66
Research Contacts
Regional
WONG Chew Hann, CA – Regional Head of Institutional Research
