期刊-NBER美国国民经济研究局-Fall1997_2_28页_562kb

NBER Working Papers Summary (July–August 1997)

Core Content

The NBER Working Papers On-Line initiative, launched in 1994, made full texts of Working Papers freely available to subscribers. This service is expected to expand in the future with electronic subscriptions and individual on-line access. The Working Papers are intended to share preliminary research findings with other economists to encourage discussion and revisions before final publication. They are not subject to review by the NBER Board of Directors.

Main Topics and Key Papers

1. Economic Policy and Institutional Change

• Paper No. 6112: Interests, Institutions, and Ideology in the Republican Conversion to Trade Liberalization, 1934–1945
  • Authors: Douglas A. Irwin and Randall S. Kroszner
  • Programs: Development of the American Economy, International Trade and Investment
  • Key Points: The RTAA of 1934 led to a shift in U.S. trade policy by delegating tariff-setting to the President. The paper argues that this change was not due to ideological shifts in Republicans but rather an increased sensitivity to export interests. The institutional structure of the RTAA played a key role in this shift.

2. Technology Transmission and Productivity

• Paper No. 6113: Trade and the Transmission of Technology
  • Author: Wolfgang Keller
  • Programs: International Trade and Investment
  • Key Points: Technology is transmitted through differentiated intermediate goods. R&D expenditures are positively correlated with productivity. The paper finds that foreign R&D has a significant effect on productivity, and domestic interindustry technology flows are not solely dependent on trade.

3. Health Care Expenditure by Age Group

• Paper No. 6114: The Medical Costs of the Young and Old: A Forty-Year Perspective
  • Authors: David M. Cutler and Ellen Meara
  • Programs: Aging, Health Care, and Public Economics
  • Key Points: Medical spending growth is disproportionately higher for infants and the elderly compared to the general population. This growth is driven by the top of the spending distribution, and the paper notes that aggregate outcomes align with spending trends but no causal evidence is provided.

4. Classical Gold Standard and Credibility

• Paper No. 6115: Violations of the "Rules of the Game" and the Credibility of the Classical Gold Standard, 1880–1914
  • Authors: Michael D. Bordo and Ronald MacDonald
  • Programs: Development of the American Economy, International Finance and Macroeconomics, Monetary Economics
  • Key Points: The Classical gold standard is shown to be credible and well-behaved, even with frequent rule violations. The paper supports Svensson's hypothesis that a credible target zone can confer monetary policy independence, with implications for modern target zone frameworks.

5. Taxation and International Boycotts

• Paper No. 6116: Taxed Avoidance: American Participation in Unsanctioned International Boycotts
  • Author: James R. Hines, Jr.
  • Programs: International Trade and Investment, Public Economics
  • Key Points: U.S. firms face tax and civil penalties for participating in unsanctioned boycotts, particularly the Arab League boycott of Israel. The paper shows that compliance is inversely related to foreign tax rates, suggesting that penalties effectively reduce boycott participation.

6. Political Decision-Making and Information

• Paper No. 6117: Misconceptions and Political Outcomes
  • Author: David Romer
  • Programs: Economic Fluctuations and Growth, Monetary Economics, Public Economics
  • Key Points: Correlated errors in policy assessment can lead to inefficient political outcomes. Providing information to voters and representatives can improve decision-making. The paper also highlights the potential for multiple equilibriums in political institutions.

7. Worker Cooperatives and Incentives

• Paper No. 6118: Why are Worker Cooperatives So Rare?
  • Author: Michael Kremer
  • Programs: Labor Studies
  • Key Points: Worker cooperatives face challenges due to redistribution among members, which distorts individual incentives. The paper provides a model explaining why cooperatives often adopt egalitarian wage policies.

8. U.S. Fiscal Imbalance

• Paper No. 6119: Quantifying the Current U.S. Fiscal Imbalance
  • Author: Alan J. Auerbach
  • Programs: Public Economics
  • Key Points: The U.S. fiscal imbalance is estimated at 5.3% of GDP, largely due to Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security. Significant policy changes are needed to address this imbalance, including reducing the primary deficit.

9. Workplace Practices and Productivity

• Paper No. 6120: How to Compete: The Impact of Workplace Practices and Information Technology on Productivity
  • Authors: Sandra E. Black and Lisa M. Lynch
  • Programs: Labor Studies
  • Key Points: Workplace practices and information technology significantly affect productivity. Unionized establishments with new industrial relations and incentive-based compensation show higher productivity. Education levels and computer use among nonmanagerial workers also correlate with productivity.

10. Product Life Cycle in the Computer Market

• Paper No. 6124: Dynamic Modeling of the Product Life Cycle in the Commercial Mainframe Computer Market, 1968–1982
  • Authors: Shane M. Greenstein and James B. Wade
  • Programs: Productivity
  • Key Points: The paper uses hazard and Poisson models to analyze product life cycles. It finds evidence of a relationship between product exit and entry determinants, including market structure and firm-specific factors.

11. SSI and AFDC Enrollment Changes

• Paper No. 6125: The Effect of U.S. Supreme Court Ruling Sullivan v. Zebley on Child SSI and AFDC Enrollment
  • Authors: A. Bowen Garrett and Sherry Glied
  • Programs: Health Care and Health Economics
  • Key Points: The Sullivan v. Zebley ruling led to a significant increase in child SSI enrollment. The paper finds that this increase was more pronounced in states with lower AFDC payments and higher SSI supplementation. It also notes a decline in employment rates for less-educated women in high-AFDC states.

12. Inflation Targeting

• Paper No. 6126: Inflation Targeting: Lessons from Four Countries
  • Authors: Frederic S. Mishkin and Adam S. Posen
  • Programs: Economic Fluctuations and Growth, Monetary Economics
  • Key Points: Inflation targeting has been adopted by several countries, including New Zealand, Canada, and the UK. The study shows that these countries have maintained low inflation and increased transparency without harming the real economy. A convergence in design choices suggests best practices for inflation-targeting frameworks.

13. Minimum Wages and Poverty

• Paper No. 6127: Do Minimum Wages Fight Poverty?
  • Authors: David Neumark and William Wascher
  • Programs: Labor Studies
  • Key Points: Minimum wage increases can lead to both gains and losses for families. While some families escape poverty, others fall into it. The net effect suggests that minimum wages resemble income redistribution within low-income families rather than from high to low-income families.

14. Affine Term Structure Models

• Paper No. 6128: Specification Analysis of Affine Term Structure Models
  • Authors: Qiang Dai and Kenneth J. Singleton
  • Programs: Asset Pricing
  • Key Points: Affine term structure models are tested for over-identifying restrictions. The paper shows that allowing for correlated factors is essential for accurately modeling both short and long-term interest rates. It also interprets the findings in terms of risk factor properties.

15. Market Liquidity and Risk Management

• Paper No. 6129: Measuring, Forecasting and Explaining Time Varying Liquidity in the Stock Market
  • Authors: Robert F. Engle and Joe Lange
  • Programs: Asset Pricing
  • Key Points: A new measure of market liquidity, VNET, is proposed. It is based on the depth of the market during price movements. The paper finds that high trading volumes are associated with informed traders and reduced liquidity, and that volatility and spreads also affect liquidity expectations.

16. Nonparametric Risk Management

• Paper No. 6130: Nonparametric Risk Management and Implied Risk Aversion
  • Authors: Yacine Aït-Sahalia and Andrew W. Lo
  • Programs: Asset Pricing
  • Key Points: A nonparametric VAR measure is introduced that accounts for economic valuation, not just dollar losses. It adjusts for risk aversion and time preferences. The paper constructs an estimator of risk aversion based on option prices and asset values.

17. Openness and Productivity Growth in LDCs

• Paper No. 6131: Openness, Specialization, and Productivity Growth in Less Developed Countries
  • Authors: Diana Weinhold and James E. Rauch
  • Programs: International Trade and Investment
  • Key Points: Increased openness to trade leads to higher specialization, which in turn accelerates productivity growth through dynamic economies of scale. The paper uses a Herfindahl index and dynamic panel regressions to support this hypothesis.

18. Cohort Earnings Patterns in Canada

• Paper No. 6132: Cohort Patterns in Canadian Earnings
  • Authors: Paul Beaudry and David Green
  • Programs: Labor Studies
  • Key Points: Age-earnings profiles for Canadian men have deteriorated for recent cohorts. The paper finds no evidence of increasing skill premia or earnings dispersion within cohorts, suggesting that skill premia may not be the main driver of inequality trends.

19. Human Capital and Global Economy

• Paper No. 6133: Human Capital, Unemployment, and Relative Wages in a Global Economy
  • Authors: Donald R. Davis and Trevor A. Reeve
  • Programs: International Trade and Investment
  • Key Points: The paper develops a framework for analyzing human capital accumulation, unemployment, and relative wages. It examines the impact of technical change, education, population shifts, and productivity slowdowns on these variables.

Key Information

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• Cost: $5.00 per paper for non-subscribers; $10.00 extra for international orders.
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• Purpose: To share preliminary research results and encourage discussion and revision before final publication.
• JEL Codes: Used to classify papers by subject, with some papers listed as "Miscellaneous" if not associated with an NBER program.
• Contact: Publications Department at (617) 868-3900 or via email at www@nber.org. For more information, visit the NBER website.