20240315-海证期货-镍周度行情分析_阶段性供需错配_难改镍过剩趋势_17页_1mb

NIKEL Weekdy Market Analysis Summary - Sea Zheng Future Research Institute, March 15, 2024

• Supply Overview: Nickel ore supply is expected to increase due to faster approval of Indonesia's RKAB (Work Program Authorization) and the conclusion of the Philippine rainy season, which supports nickel mining output. However, price adjustments for intermediate products will take time, maintaining cost support. Indonesian MHP (Molten Heat Pot) and high-nickel production rose, helping to alleviate short-term supply constraints, but long-term excess remains.

• Demand Overview: Demand improved in March, with stainless steel and battery precursor production showing signs of rebound. While 300-series stainless steel declined slightly, overall volumes increased, providing near-term support.

• Price and Market Dynamics: Nickel prices surged in the past week, with inventories remaining high globally. Import premiums and export data indicate supply excess, partially offset by increasing imports from Indonesia and Canada. The market experienced a short-term supply-demand mismatch, boosting prices, but fundamentals point to continued supply dominance. LME and Shanghai nickel inventories rose, weighing on positions. Electrolytic nickel production costs increased due to upstream price hikes.

• Outlook: Short-term nickel prices have support from demand improvements and delayed supply adjustments. However, long-term trends indicate supply surplus will prevail. Inventory levels dominate the bearish case. Trading strategies recommend holding short positions and participating in the expanding April-May spread for hedging.

• Key Indicators: 04-05 calender spread widened, supporting spread trades. No profitable arbitrage opportunities at present due to LME spot deficits and inventory pressures. Indonesia's RKAB approvals address short-term supply shortages but may not alter long-term overcapacity.