2014年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Myanmar_Second_Review_Under_the_Staff_38页_882kb

Myanmar: Second Review Under the Staff-Monitored Program

Core Content

This document outlines the second review under the Staff-Monitored Program (SMP) for Myanmar, conducted by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in February 2014. It provides an assessment of the country's macroeconomic situation, policy progress, and future reforms, while acknowledging the challenges posed by political liberalization and institutional capacity limitations.

Main Views and Key Information

Macroeconomic Situation and Outlook

• Growth: Economic growth has strengthened, primarily driven by the services sector. In 2013/14 and 2014/15, growth is projected to accelerate slightly.
• Inflation: Inflation remains elevated, reaching 7.3% in August 2013, but declined to 4.7% by November 2013. It is forecasted to rise to 7% in 2014/15 due to electricity prices and demand pressures.
• International Reserves: Despite an increase, reserves remain low, at around $4.7 billion (3.2 months of prospective imports) by end-2013.
• Current Account Deficit: The deficit is expected to widen to 5% of GDP in 2014/15 but will be offset by FDI and aid inflows.
• Exchange Rate: The exchange rate faced renewed pressure in late 2013, prompting the Central Bank of Myanmar (CBM) to sell reserves.

Staff-Monitored Program (SMP)

• The SMP has been successful in preserving macroeconomic stability and achieving all quantitative and structural benchmarks.
• The program aimed to build institutions and tools for macroeconomic management and has made progress in that direction.
• Some reforms, such as foreign exchange policy and monetary policy tool development, have progressed more slowly than expected.

Key Policy Areas

A. Monetary and Exchange Policies

• Reserve Accumulation: The CBM's reserves have increased significantly, but remain below desirable levels. Measures such as foreign exchange auctions and improving the efficiency of the foreign exchange market are recommended.
• Monetary Tools: The CBM needs to develop effective monetary policy tools to counter inflationary pressures and manage reserve money growth.
• Reserve Requirements: Reforming reserve requirements is essential to enhance the effectiveness of open market operations.
• CBM Financing: Reducing CBM financing of the fiscal deficit is crucial to limit inflationary pressures.
• Exchange Rate Management: The CBM should prioritize using its foreign nostro account for foreign exchange auctions to align with Article VIII obligations and improve market confidence.

B. Financial Sector Modernization

• Foreign Bank Entry: The authorities are issuing licenses to foreign banks to promote integration, but the number should be limited initially (3–5 licenses) to ensure effective supervision.
• Policy Banks: Policy banks have been established to support development goals, but they pose fiscal risks and need to be operated transparently and commercially.
• AML/CFT Compliance: Strengthening the Anti-Money Laundering and Counter-Terrorism Financing (AML/CFT) regime is necessary to meet FATF recommendations and avoid potential countermeasures.
• State Bank Reform: The Myanmar Financial and Treasury Bank (MFTB) is most affected by foreign exchange reforms and may be transformed into a commercial bank.

C. Fiscal Policy and Reforms

• Fiscal Deficit: The 2014/15 fiscal deficit is projected at 4.5% of GDP, down from 5% in 2013/14, thanks to one-off revenues from telecommunications license sales.
• Revenue and Expenditure: Revenue and grants are projected to increase, while expenditure is expected to rise. The budget aims to streamline tax laws, broaden the tax base, and increase tax on gas exports.
• Public Financial Management (PFM): Establishing a treasury department is a key reform to improve revenue administration and support the introduction of treasury securities auctions.
• LTO Operations: The Large Taxpayer Office (LTO) is set to take over taxpayer administration from April 1, 2014, and its success is critical for sustained revenue growth.

Authorities' Views

• The authorities broadly agreed with the staff's assessment but emphasized the need to balance policy trade-offs.
• They are planning for higher growth rates and are aware of macroeconomic and institutional risks.
• They intend to continue close consultations with the IMF and are considering future engagement models.
• The authorities are noncommittal on accelerating the reduction of CBM financing and are focused on the mid-term budget for increased allocations.

Risks and Challenges

• Short-Term Risks: Low international reserves, elevated inflation, and underdeveloped monetary policy tools pose risks.
• Exchange Rate Pressures: If foreign exchange inflows do not materialize, the CBM may struggle to maintain stability.
• Institutional Capacity: The CBM and other institutions need to improve their capacity to manage monetary and fiscal policies effectively.

Conclusion

• The SMP has supported Myanmar's economic transformation and macroeconomic stability.
• Continued IMF engagement is expected to be intensive, with a focus on technical assistance and policy coordination.
• Further reforms are needed to ensure the CBM can fulfill its new mandate, including achieving budgetary independence and improving monetary policy tools.
• The authorities recognize the need for careful sequencing of reforms and strengthening of institutional frameworks to support sustainable growth and stability.