2011年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Islamic_Republic_of_Mauritania_Second_Review_Under_the_Three_82页_1mb

Summary of the Islamic Republic of Mauritania: Second Review Under the Three-Year Extended Credit Facility Arrangement

Core Content

This document outlines the second review under the Three-Year Extended Credit Facility (ECF) Arrangement for the Islamic Republic of Mauritania, conducted by the IMF in June 2011. It includes a staff report, staff supplement, press release, and statement by the Executive Director. The report discusses economic developments, program implementation, policy discussions, and staff appraisal of Mauritania's economic situation and future outlook.

Main Economic Developments and Program Implementation

Economic Recovery and Performance

• Economic activity rebounded sharply from the global crisis lows in 2010, with non-oil output growth reaching 5.7%.
• Mining projects (gold, copper, iron ore) played a crucial role in the recovery, contributing to higher commodity prices and increased exports.
• Current account deficit narrowed significantly due to booming mining exports and higher commodity prices, offsetting rising food and fuel imports.
• Inflation remained under control, at 6.1% in 2010, with non-food inflation below 5%.
• Foreign exchange reserves exceeded targets, reaching US$288 million (2.1 months of imports) at the end of 2010.

Program Implementation

• All continuous and quantitative performance criteria for end-December 2010 were met.
• However, the indicative target on poverty-related spending was missed due to delays in capital spending.
• Structural reforms are progressing, with the exception of the tax administration benchmark, which was only partially met.

Key Policy Discussions

Macroeconomic Outlook

• Growth is projected to exceed 5% in 2011, driven by continued mining and service sector expansion.
• Inflation is expected to rise to 7.5% due to higher fuel and food prices.
• Current account deficit is projected to narrow to 7.5% of GDP.
• Foreign exchange reserves are expected to increase to US$395 million, with reserve cover improving to 2.7 months of imports.

Fiscal Policy

• Fiscal consolidation continues, with 2011 budget deficit targeted at 1.6% of non-oil GDP.
• Subsidies and transfers to public enterprises will increase to 5.7% of non-oil GDP, reflecting the emergency program to support the poor.
• The government will use mining revenues, reallocation of under-executed investment spending, and additional land sales to fund the increased subsidy burden.
• Excises on tobacco and cars will be raised to generate additional revenues.

Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies

• The Central Bank of Mauritania (CBM) remains committed to containing inflation through prudent monetary policy.
• Exchange rate flexibility is emphasized, with the Ouguuya appreciating in line with fundamentals and not due to intervention.
• Reserve targets were increased to seize the opportunity from higher commodity prices, enhancing resilience to external shocks.
• Banking supervision and liquidity management will be strengthened through prudential regulation and coordination with fiscal policy.

Structural Reforms

• Tax administration reforms are underway, with single taxpayer ID codes issued for all taxpayers by year-end.
• Public enterprise restructuring is essential to reduce budgetary transfers and improve public service quality.
• Civil service reform is a priority, with a focus on eliminating ghost workers and improving wage management.
• Public financial management improvements include Treasury Single Account implementation and enhanced internal controls.

Debt Management

• The Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) update confirmed moderate debt risk, even after nonconcessional financing for an electricity generation plant.
• Debt management remains a key area for reform to ensure long-term financial stability.

Key Challenges and Vulnerabilities

• The economy remains highly vulnerable to external shocks, including commodity price declines, external demand slowdowns, and sharp increases in food and energy prices.
• High unemployment and low economic diversification are persistent issues.
• Subsidy schemes are ill-targeted and unsustainable, necessitating a shift towards more effective social safety nets.

Recommendations and Next Steps

• Replace inefficient subsidy programs with well-targeted social protection mechanisms, such as conditional cash transfers.
• Improve the targeting of food and energy subsidies through survey-based identification of the neediest populations.
• Accelerate structural reforms, including tax administration, public enterprise restructuring, and civil service reform.
• Strengthen absorptive capacity by improving budget coordination, internal controls, and donor aid disbursement.
• Enhance the financial sector by adopting international regulatory standards and improving accounting practices (towards IFRS).

Conclusion

The IMF acknowledges the positive macroeconomic developments in Mauritania, including economic recovery, inflation control, and improved current account balance. However, vulnerabilities and implementation challenges remain, particularly in fiscal sustainability, targeting of social programs, and structural reform progress. The program design and policy discussions highlight the importance of prudent fiscal and monetary policies, greater exchange rate flexibility, and inclusive growth strategies to ensure long-term economic stability and poverty reduction.