2013年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Bangladesh_Second_Review_Under_the_Three_82页_1mb

Summary of Bangladesh: Second Review Under the Three-Year Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria

Core Content

This document outlines the second review under the three-year Extended Credit Facility (ECF) arrangement for Bangladesh, conducted by the IMF staff in collaboration with the World Bank. It includes a Staff Report, Staff Supplement, Press Release, and a Statement by the Executive Director, all of which assess the country's macroeconomic performance, policy implementation, and future outlook.

Main Viewpoints

• Program Performance: The ECF program is broadly on track, with all periodic performance criteria met by the end of December 2012. The program has supported macroeconomic stabilization and structural reforms, with the fiscal deficit (excluding grants) expected to meet the target of 4.5 percent of GDP in FY13.
• Outlook and Risks: The near-term growth outlook has weakened due to domestic political tensions, nationwide strikes, and supply disruptions. External risks include a potential euro area shock and global oil price spikes. The current account is expected to improve in FY13 but may turn into a deficit in FY14 due to increased import activity.
• Exchange Rate and Reserves: The taka has appreciated by about 7 percent since early 2012, and gross international reserves (GIR) have increased to US$14.5 billion by end-April 2013. However, the risk of balance of payments (BOP) disruptions remains due to potential volatility in the current account.
• Fiscal and Monetary Policy: The authorities are maintaining a prudent fiscal and monetary stance to anchor macroeconomic stability ahead of national elections in early 2014. Fiscal reforms include improving tax administration, managing subsidy costs, and enhancing debt sustainability.
• Structural Reforms: Key structural measures aim to strengthen fiscal revenues, public debt management, and the financial sector, with a focus on implementing the VAT plan, automating tax processes, and improving efficiency in state-owned enterprises (SOEs).

Key Information

Program Overview

• The ECF arrangement was approved on April 11, 2012, for SDR 639.96 million (120% of quota).
• The first review was completed on February 20, 2013, and the second review is based on the performance up to end-December 2012.
• The program seeks to support Bangladesh's Sixth Five-Year Plan (FY2011-15) and development priorities.

Macroeconomic Developments

• Growth: Real GDP growth is projected to slow to 5.4% in FY13 from 6.3% in FY12. Near-term projections are uncertain due to political and economic disruptions.
• Inflation: Headline inflation has moderated to 7.7% (y/y) in March 2013, down from decade-highs in 2011. Nonfood inflation has declined, but food inflation has risen due to disruptions from strikes.
• Current Account: A surplus is expected in recent quarters, but a deficit of around 0.5% of GDP is projected in FY14 due to increased imports.
• Exchange Rate: The taka has appreciated, reflecting improved macroeconomic stability and BOP conditions.

Risks and Vulnerabilities

• Domestic Risks: Escalating political tensions and strikes are likely to impact investment and growth. The recent building collapse could affect the garment sector, a major export industry.
• External Risks: A renewed euro area crisis and global oil price shocks could impact exports and imports, respectively.
• Fiscal Risks: Weakness in state-owned commercial banks (SOCBs) and potential increases in pre-election spending could strain fiscal and financial stability.

Policy Discussions

• The ECF program through June 2014 is aimed at consolidating macroeconomic gains, advancing structural reforms, and promoting sound economic governance.
• Modifications to performance criteria are proposed to reflect the revised macroeconomic outlook, including adjusting bank borrowing targets and enhancing flexibility in monetary policy.
• The authorities are committed to maintaining fiscal discipline, with a focus on reducing subsidies and improving tax collection.

Structural Reforms

• Tax and Revenue Administration: The VAT implementation plan has been approved, and steps are being taken to automate tax processes and taxpayer identification systems.
• Subsidy Management: The government is working to reduce fuel subsidies and improve the efficiency of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) involved in energy and fertilizer sectors.
• Debt Sustainability: External borrowing is being directed toward high-impact projects, and debt management practices are being strengthened to ensure long-term sustainability.

Conclusion

The IMF staff concludes that the program is broadly on track, with strong macroeconomic stabilization and progress on structural reforms. However, the outlook remains uncertain due to domestic and external risks, necessitating continued fiscal prudence, monetary restraint, and structural improvements to ensure long-term economic stability and development.