期刊-NBER美国国民经济研究局-2014no1_36页_1mb

NBER Monetary Economics Program Summary

Core Content

The NBER Monetary Economics Program has been significantly influenced by the 2007-2009 financial and macroeconomic crisis. The program, one of three NBER macroeconomic programs, has shifted its focus to understand the interactions between financial markets and the macroeconomy, the effects of financial disruptions on economic outcomes, and the role of fiscal policy in stabilization. The program also explores the behavior of inflation, particularly in the context of the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates.

Main Research Areas

1. Financial Market and Macroeconomy Interactions

• The crisis has led to a major shift in research focus toward financial market disruptions and their macroeconomic effects.
• Researchers examine how changes in credit availability and financial regulation impact economic activity, employment, and investment.
• Key Studies:
  • Bo Becker and Victoria Ivashina analyze how firms shift from bank borrowing to direct debt issuance during credit market disruptions.
  • Gabriel Chodorow-Reich and Jesse Edgerton show that credit market disruptions had significant effects on firms' employment and investment.
  • Mary Amiti and David Weinstein use Japanese banking data to demonstrate the large impact of financial institution health on the economy.

2. The Zero Lower Bound on Interest Rates

• The crisis has highlighted the limitations of traditional monetary policy tools, particularly the inability to lower nominal interest rates below zero.
• This has led to renewed interest in forward guidance and quantitative easing as alternative monetary policy tools.
• Key Studies:
  • Dimitri Vayanos and Jean-Luc Vila show how quantitative easing affects interest rates on targeted and substitute assets.
  • Arvind Krishnamurthy and Annette Vissing-Jorgensen analyze the different channels through which quantitative easing influences interest rates.
  • Simon Gilchrist and Egon Zakrajsek find that quantitative easing has a substantial effect on corporate credit risk but little impact on financial institution risk.
  • Ivan Werning explores how expectations of future economic activity and real income influence current decision-making.

3. Fiscal Policy in a Liquidity Trap

• The limitations of monetary policy have prompted increased attention to the role of fiscal policy in stabilizing the economy.
• Researchers investigate the short-run effects of fiscal policy using microeconomic data and real-time economic indicators.
• Key Studies:
  • Emi Nakamura and Jón Steinsson use state-level defense spending data to estimate the impact of government purchases on GDP.
  • Jonathan Parker et al. analyze the timing of tax rebate distributions to estimate short-run spending effects.
  • Christopher Nekarda and Valerie Ramey study the impact of government spending across industries on output and wages.
  • Alan Auerbach and Yuriy Gorodnichenko examine whether fiscal policy effects differ during economic downturns.
  • Mark Gertler organized a conference to discuss the implications of the financial crisis for monetary policy, emphasizing the zero lower bound.
  • Woodford, Christiano, Eichenbaum, and Rebelo analyze how fiscal policy interacts with monetary policy constraints.
  • Farhi, Gopinath, and Itskhoki explore the use of fiscal tools in fixed exchange rate regimes.
  • Farhi and Werning investigate how membership in a currency union affects fiscal policy outcomes.

4. Inflation Behavior

• The behavior of inflation during the crisis has been puzzling, with many models failing to explain the persistent low levels.
• Researchers use microeconomic data and behavioral surveys to better understand inflation dynamics.
• Key Studies:
  • Laurence Ball and Sandeep Mazumder show that traditional inflation models fail to explain the recent behavior of inflation.
  • Olivier Coibion and Yuriy Gorodnichenko propose that survey-based inflation expectations are more reliable than rational expectations assumptions.
  • James Stock and Mark Watson suggest that inflation expectations have been anchored, despite persistent inflation being below target.
  • Gilchrist, Schoenle, Sim, and Zakrajsek argue that financial disruptions may be the source of inflation's failure to decline.

Key Information

• The NBER is a private, nonprofit research organization established in 1920.
• The Monetary Economics Program is led by Christina D. Romer and David H. Romer, who are also co-directors of the program.
• Former program members have held prominent policymaking positions, including Ben Bernanke, Janet Yellen, Stanley Fischer, Mervyn King, James Stock, and Lawrence Summers.
• The program frequently collaborates with policymakers and hosts events such as symposia and conferences to discuss current and historical macroeconomic issues.
• The program's research is published in NBER Working Papers, academic journals, and NBER volumes.

Conferences and Events

• The NBER has hosted conferences on topics such as:
  • The European crises (2012)
  • The 100th anniversary of the Federal Reserve (2013)
• These events bring together researchers and policymakers to discuss important macroeconomic issues, including the zero lower bound and the effectiveness of quantitative easing.

Conclusion

The NBER Monetary Economics Program has adapted its research focus to better understand the complex interactions between financial markets and the macroeconomy, the role of fiscal policy in times of economic weakness, and the behavior of inflation in the context of the zero lower bound. These studies provide critical insights for both academic research and policymaking in the aftermath of the financial crisis.