《亚洲债券监测》最新-64页_5mb

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ASIA BOND MONITOR JUNE 2024 SUMMARY

Summary of Emerging East Asian Local Currency Bond Markets

The ASIA BOND MONITOR June 2024 provides a comprehensive review of emerging East Asian local currency (LCY) bond markets, their outlook, risks, and policy developments. The report covers ASEAN members, China, and Korea.

Key Findings:

Bond Market Development (Q1 2024):
- Emerging East Asia’s LCY bond market expanded by 1.4% q-o-q to USD24.7 trillion, with subdued growth compared to the previous quarter due to reduced government issuance in China and Hong Kong.
- Treasury bonds (62% of the market) dominate, with an average maturity of 8.2 years. Banks hold the largest share (36.6%) followed by insurance funds (28.9%).
Financial Conditions:
- Markets weakened due to delayed US Fed rate cuts and higher-for-longer interest rate expectations.
- Region-wide currencies depreciated 1.8% against the USD. Bond outflows reached USD20 billion in March–April 2024.
- Elevated geopolitical risks and inflationary pressures increased uncertainty.
Sustainable Bond Market (ASEAN+3):
- The ASEAN+3 sustainable bond market expanded 21.4% y-o-y (to USD805.9 billion), outpacing global growth.
- Green bonds dominate (90% of outstanding), with a focus on shorter maturities (77% in issuance). Japan issued the world’s first sovereign transition bond.
Country-Specific Highlights:
- China: LCB yields fell amid low inflation, but issuance contracted due to high base effects in government bonds.
- Indonesia: Bond yields surged due to policy rate hikes and capital outflows (USD3.2 billion in 4 months).
- Korea: Government bonds rose due to delayed monetary policy adjustments by the BOK.
ESG Disclosures and Taxonomies:
- Japan’s study shows increased corporate ESG materiality disclosure using XBRL, though limited predictive power for financial performance.
- The ASEAN Taxonomy uses a multi-tiered framework, incorporating transition pathways and remedial measures.
Policy & Regulatory Developments:
- China, HK, Singapore have expanded green bond initiatives; Indonesia and Korea advanced taxonomy harmonization efforts.

Risks and Outlook

The region faces heightened vulnerabilities from US monetary policy uncertainty, inflation risks, and supply chain disruptions. Sustainable finance and ESG alignment present growth opportunities amid global fragmentation challenges.