亚开行-_亚洲债券监测_——2025年6月（英）_64页_7mb

报告摘要

Asia Bond Monitor June 2025 Summary

Core Content

The Asia Bond Monitor (ABM) June 2025 provides an overview of recent developments and outlook for emerging East Asian local currency bond markets, including the ASEAN+3 members: the 10 ASEAN countries, China, Hong Kong, China, and Republic of Korea. The report is part of the Asian Bond Markets Initiative, supported by the Asian Development Bank (ADB).

Main Points

Regional Financial Conditions

Financial conditions in emerging East Asia remained resilient despite heightened global uncertainty and the higher-for-longer monetary stance of the US Federal Reserve.
Investor sentiment weakened in March–April due to trade policy uncertainty, but recovered in May with progress in US-China trade negotiations.
Regional currencies appreciated 2.3% (simple average) and 1.7% (GDP-weighted average) against the US dollar due to weakened confidence in USD assets, worsening fiscal positions, and the downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating.
Monetary easing and disinflation contributed to declining bond yields in most local currency (LCY) bond markets.

Bond Market Developments

The total emerging East Asian LCY bond market reached USD27.2 trillion at the end of March 2025, with quarter-on-quarter growth slowing to 2.7% from 3.1% in the previous quarter.
Government bonds grew 3.8% q-o-q, with the PRC being the primary driver of regional government bond issuance.
Corporate bond issuance declined 1.0% q-o-q, reflecting weaker investor appetite amid global trade tensions.
ASEAN bond markets accounted for 9.1% of the emerging East Asian total, with total bond stock expanding 2.2% q-o-q to USD2.5 trillion.
Banks and insurance/pension funds were the top two holders of outstanding Treasury bonds, holding 34.8% and 29.2%, respectively.

Sustainable Bond Markets

Sustainable bonds in ASEAN+3 reached USD922.7 billion at the end of March 2025, with q-o-q growth slowing to 0.3% from 2.9% in the previous quarter.
The PRC accounted for 55.2% of ASEAN+3 sustainable bond issuance in Q1 2025.
LCY financing in sustainable bond markets decreased slightly to 72.9% from 75.8% in 2024.
The size-weighted average maturity of ASEAN+3 sustainable bond issuance fell to 5.1 years from 6.0 years in 2024.
ASEAN economies had a higher share of long-term financing at 59.9%, with an average tenor of 10.2 years.

Key Risks and Outlook

Downside risks to regional financial conditions include:
- Escalation of trade tensions between the PRC and the US, which could delay investments, disrupt supply chains, and increase market volatility.
- Wider conflict in the Middle East, which could raise food and energy prices and increase global uncertainty.
- Vulnerability of the PRC's property sector, which could weaken consumer and business sentiment.
- Extreme weather events in the medium term could negatively impact growth and inflation.
Uncertainty over US trade policies and the expiration of the current tariff pause in July continues to cloud the outlook for regional financial conditions.
The Fed maintained its higher-for-longer monetary stance, with no change to the federal funds target rate at 4.25%–4.50% and 50 bps of expected rate cuts in 2025.
The ECB continued monetary easing, reducing key rates by 25 bps in March and April, but remained cautious due to rising trade uncertainty.
The BOJ kept the policy rate unchanged amid heightened trade uncertainty, with revised GDP and inflation forecasts reflecting moderated growth and disinflation.

Conclusion

The ABM June 2025 highlights the resilience of emerging East Asian bond markets despite global uncertainties, while also identifying key risks and policy considerations for sustainable development and monetary stability. The report emphasizes the importance of regional coordination, innovative financial tools, and strategic partnerships in addressing economic challenges and enhancing market depth.