2025-06-24-亚开行-亚洲债券监测（英）-亚开行_64页_7mb

Summary of Asia Bond Monitor June 2025

This edition of the Asia Bond Monitor examines developments in emerging East Asian local currency bond markets within the context of heightened global uncertainty and evolving policy responses.

Key Regional Financial Conditions

From March to May 2025:

• Regional currencies appreciated against the U.S. dollar amid reduced confidence in dollar-denominated assets.
• Equity markets showed mixed performance, with strength in May following trade negotiation progress between major economies.
• Bond yields declined across most regional markets due to central bank easing and trade policy uncertainties.
• Elevated risks stem from U.S. higher-for-longer rates, potential Middle East conflict spillovers, and China's property sector vulnerabilities.

Local Currency Bond Market Developments

Overview

• Emerging East Asia's LCY bond market stood at ~USD27.2 trillion at year-end, growing at 2.7% q-o-q (slower than the previous quarter).
• Bond market growth moderated significantly due to:
  • Deterioration in global trade outlook
  • Reduced corporate lending activity
  • Central banks' post-pandemic policy recalibration

By Segment

• Government Bonds: Expanded with nearly all ASEAN+3 markets increasing issuance; PRC's government bonds grew at 3.8% q-o-q.
• Corporate Bonds: Issuance contracted by 12.1% q-o-q, with many economies experiencing the fastest contraction in 2025.

Maturity Structure

• Regionwide bond maturities shortened to an average of 7.0 years versus 8.4 years in the U.S. and 8.3 years in the EU-20.
• Treasury issuance in emerging East Asia increased to USD17.5 trillion, still less concentrated than regional markets elsewhere.

ASEAN+3 Sustainable Bond Market

• The region's sustainable bond market stood at ~USD922.7 billion at year-end—18.3% of the global total—trailing the EU-20.
• Notable findings:
  • LCY-denominated sustainable bonds accounted for 71.5% (down from 75.8% in 2024).
  • Sustainability-linked bonds became increasingly prominent.
  • Korea and Thailand showed the longest average tenors on sustainable bonds.

New AI-Driven Deep Learning Analysis on ESG Reporting

• Using AI tools to analyze word patterns across multiple languages reveals significant differences in how leading companies address ESG topics.
• Strongest emphasis is placed on:
  • Korean firms on environmental and social issues.
  • Japanese companies on social aspects, particularly job creation.
  • Indonesian, Malaysian, and Philippine firms focus on community-related disclosures.

Noteworthy Policy Actions and Initiatives

• PRC: Unveiled economic support measures including reserve ratio cuts and innovation bonds.
• Indonesia: Executed successful debt switches to manage maturing bonds.
• Korea: Approved supplementary budget addressing economic challenges.
• Singapore: Finalized its 2025 government spending framework.
• Thailand: Concluded bond switch transactions to extend maturities.

Investor Landscape

Across the region's bond markets, institutional investors collectively hold a growing share of government securities. Among the key takeaways:

• Investor diversification has improved but remains more pronounced in Japan than in Southeast Asia.
• The development of transparent ESG reporting faces challenges in some languages (e.g., Thai, Bahasa Indonesia).

Conclusion

The Asia Bond Monitor sees the monetary policy environment becoming increasingly complicated as the U.S. delays easing while inflation and uncertainty remain elevated. This compounds existing debt sustainability problems across many East Asian economies. Synchronized policy actions by regional authorities and continued market-driven structural reforms appear essential to managing these intertwined risks.