2024-09-23-亚开行-亚洲债券监测——2024年9月（英）_64页_7mb

Executive Summary
Recent financial conditions in emerging East Asia improved, driven by expectations of policy rate cuts in the U.S. and regional markets, narrowing risk premiums and appreciating regional currencies. Inflation moderated, supporting bond yields declines. Treasury bonds expanded significantly, with China leading issuance, while corporate bonds rebounded due to regulatory capital requirements. Sustainable bonds grew but featured shorter tenors compared to EU markets. Gold standard transition plans and insurance tools are crucial for managing climate risks.

Key Developments

1. Regional Financial Conditions: Markets responded positively to U.S. rate cut expectations, with regional currencies appreciating and risk premiums falling. Outlier risks included U.S.-PRC trade tensions and geopolitical concerns.
2. Treasury Bond Market: Outstandings grew 2.3% q-o-q, with medium-to-long-term maturities dominating. China’s issuance surged (41.6% q-o-q) due to stimulus bonds.
3. Sustainable Bonds: Outstanding reached USD868.1 billion (17.4% y-o-y growth). Shorter tenors (74.6% avg. maturity in ASEAN+3) contrasted with EU-20’s longer durations. Green bonds dominated.

Regional Equity Performance
Equities gained collectively (2.4% avg. simple return) despite volatility linked to U.S. labor market data. Institutional investors drove flows into regional markets, with Hong Kong and China leading equity gains.

Climate Finance Policies
Japan’s comprehensive transition finance approach aligns with national decarbonization goals, while insurance tools mitigate physical risks. Regulators stress transition taxonomies to avoid greenwashing.

Country-Specific Highlights

• China: Strong Treasury issuance offset slower corporate growth. Banks and insurance firms dominate the market.
• Hong Kong: Government bonds contracted due to high maturation volume. Sustainable bonds led by green corporate issues.
• Indonesia: Inflation easing supported yields declining. Central bank bonds rose fastest, now ~23% of holdings.
• Malaysia: Bonds featured high Sukuk (Islamic) shares. Sustainable bonds averaged 8.7 years.
• Philippines: Corporate bonds faced high rates, moderating issuance. Foreign-currency sustainability bonds dominated.
• Republic of Korea: Government bonds expanded (15.4% q-o-q), with insurers holding ~30%.
• Singapore: Corporate bonds saw surge in Housing & Development Board green issues.
• Thailand: Government bonds shrank due to maturation. Foreign holdings of sovereign bonds fell.
• Viet Nam: Bond market shrank due to maturation volume. insurers and banks hold >90% of government bonds.

Risks and Outlook
On the upside, monetary tightening and growth prospects support markets. Geopolitical risks (U.S.-China tensions, climate events) and policy uncertainty (Malaysia’s political instability) are key concerns. Climate adaptation and clear transition pathways are vital.