国际能源署-2021年2季度天然气市场报告（英文）-2021.4-65页_3mb

Gas Market Report Summary - Q2-2021

Core Content

This report provides an analysis of global natural gas markets during the second quarter of 2021, focusing on the impact of severe winter conditions and their effects on supply, demand, and pricing. It also reviews the 2020 market trends, highlighting the resilience of gas markets amid the unprecedented energy demand shock caused by the pandemic and the role of coal-to-gas switching in reducing emissions.

Main Points

2021 Winter Events

• Northeast Asia (January 2021):

  • Extremely cold temperatures led to a surge in natural gas demand.
  • Limited LNG supply and storage capacity caused price spikes and localized shortages.
  • Spot LNG prices and charter rates reached unprecedented highs.
  • Japan and South Korea saw significant increases in electricity demand, with Japan's prices reaching CNY 10,000/tonne (USD 28/MBtu).
  • China's gas demand grew by 23% due to economic recovery and cold weather.
  • European markets were affected, with LNG imports falling by ~40% and storage withdrawals increasing.

• North America (February 2021):

  • Severe winter storms caused extreme cold, increasing heating and electricity demand.
  • Gas production dropped due to well freeze-offs and reduced processing capacity.
  • Texas saw a 45% drop in production, leading to power cuts affecting 4 million customers.
  • Spot prices surged on major hubs like Waha, Houston Ship Channel, and OGT.
  • Prices returned to normal by the end of February as production resumed and demand eased.

2020 Market Overview

• Global Gas Demand:

  • Declined by ~75 bcm (or 1.9% y-o-y), the largest drop in history.
  • The decline was partially offset by coal-to-gas switching, which reduced CO₂ emissions by 58 Mt.
  • Power generation was the most affected sector, accounting for nearly half of the demand drop.

• Regional Demand and Supply:

  • North America: Accounted for one-third of the global demand decline. US demand fell by ~2%, while Canadian demand dropped by ~4%.
  • Asia Pacific: Demand increased by 0.5% y-o-y, driven by China's growth. Production fell by 1% due to low prices and mature field declines.
  • Eurasia: Accounted for over 40% of the global production decline. Russia's production dropped by 6.5%, and Central Asian production fell by ~5%.
  • Europe: Gas consumption fell by 2.8% y-o-y, with significant drops in power and industrial demand. LNG and pipeline imports both declined.

• LNG Trade:

  • Global LNG trade grew by 1.4% in 2020, despite pandemic impacts.
  • US LNG exports increased by 34%, while European LNG imports dropped by 3%.
  • The Panama Canal became a bottleneck for US LNG exports, forcing longer routes to Asia.

Key Information

Supply and Demand Dynamics

• 2020 Demand Drop: Global gas demand fell by 75 bcm (1.9% y-o-y), with North America contributing a third of the decline.
• 2021 Recovery: Expected to grow by 125 bcm (3.2% y-o-y), with Asia and fast-growing markets leading the recovery.
• Power Generation: Remains the most challenging sector due to low demand growth and competition from renewables and cheaper alternatives.
• Storage Inventories: Both Europe and the US saw storage levels fall below 5-year averages, creating room for higher injection rates in 2021.

Regional Highlights

• Japan: Demand fell by 4.5% y-o-y, but a cold spell in December boosted consumption.
• South Korea: Demand increased by 2%, driven by temporary nuclear outages and government shutdowns of coal plants.
• China: Led Asia Pacific demand growth, with a 6% increase in 2020 and 23% in January 2021.
• Russia: Production dropped by 6.5% y-o-y, with a significant portion of the decline in the first half of the year.
• Central Asia: Production fell by ~5%, with Turkmenistan accounting for most of the drop.
• Europe: LNG imports dropped by 3%, and pipeline imports by 12%, but storage and interconnectors helped mitigate supply shortfalls.

Market Volatility

• Spot Prices: Experiencing significant volatility, especially during the cold spells in January and February.
• Charter Rates: Rose to historical highs in January, then fell by March 2021.
• LNG Price Spikes: Recorded in Asian markets, with some prices reaching levels not seen since 2017/18.

Conclusion

The 2020-2021 winter season highlighted the vulnerability of natural gas markets to extreme weather conditions and the importance of flexible supply chains, storage, and interconnectors. While 2020 saw a significant drop in global gas demand, 2021 is expected to show recovery, particularly in Asia, though uncertainties remain due to economic and health conditions. The report underscores the need for resilient market design and energy security measures that remain relevant year-round.