国际能源署-天然气市场报告_Q3-2025（英）_65页_3mb

报告摘要

Global Gas Demand: Growth slowed to 1.3% in 2025 (2024: 2.8%) due to higher prices, macroeconomic uncertainty, and supply constraints. Asia saw its weakest annual growth since 2022 (1% or less).
Regional Breakdown:
- Europe: Demand rose 6.5% y-o-y (2025) amid strong gas-to-power growth, offset by renewables.
- North America: Growth of 2.5% y-o-y supported by colder weather and industrial demand.
- Asia: Record declines in China (-1%) and India (-7%) dragged down regional demand.
Supply: Global LNG supply expanded 4% in H1 2025, accelerated to 5.5% full-year, driven by U.S., Canada, and Qatar.

Middle East/Iran Impact: Israel-Iran conflict heightened price volatility and tested gas trade resilience, though Egypt/Turkey's pipeline imports remained stable.
Strait of Hormuz: Asia relies on ~85% of global LNG transit (~184 bcm/year), with Red Sea/Routes logistics tightened due to conflicts.
Europe’s Role:Solidified as top LNG destination, with demand forecast declining mildly in 2026 amid supplanting pipeline gas.

China: Gas demand weakened as industrial/price-sensitive sectors curtailed use, pushing LNG imports down ~21% in H1 2025.
India/Pakistan: Higher spot prices and diversification to piped gas curbed imports, despite remaining deficits.
Policy Shifts: Robust industrial growth in Japan/Korea supported modest recoveries, but nuclear restarts pressure gas demand.

Supply Growth: 7% (40 bcm) increase led by U.S., Canada, Mexico—IEA predicts the next wave’s 2025 incremental capacity will continue with 2026’s surpassing expectations.
LNG Prices: Expected to soften amid tighter market conditions unless geopolitical tensions worsen.
Key Risks: Storage deficits in Europe, flare gas projects in Iraq, logistics congestion via Red Sea.