国际能源署-天然气市场报告，2023年第2季度（英）-52页_4mb

报告摘要

Market Rebalancing: Global gas markets softened in 2023 due to improved supply fundamentals, lower prices, and below-average demand. Key markets (Asia, Europe, US) saw significant price declines, especially after January 2023.
Inventory Levels: Storage levels globally, particularly in Europe and the US, ended the 2022/23 heating season well above five-year averages, easing injection demand for 2023.
LNG Dominance: LNG imports accounted for over half of Europe’s gas supplies in 2022/23, driven by reduced Russian pipeline gas. The US emerged as a key supplier.
Regional Demand:
- Europe: Gas demand dropped by a record 55 bcm (16%) due to mild weather, energy-saving measures, and high prices.
- Asia: Demand fell in 2022 but is expected to recover modestly (3%) in 2023, with China and India leading growth.
- North America: Consumption increased during winter 2022/23 but is projected to decline by 2% in 2023 due to economic slowdown and renewable expansion.
Supply Constraints: Global gas supply remains tight in 2023, with uncertainties including potential further declines in Russian pipeline gas to Europe and LNG availability.

Production Growth in the US: US production neared 100 billion cubic feet per day (bcf/d) in Q1 2023, driven by Permian shale oil-associated gas.
LNG Export Expansion: The US and Qatar led LNG supply growth, while Russia’s exports declined.
Price Moderation: Spot prices in Europe (TTF), Asia, and the US fell below 2021 highs, though still above historical averages.
E-Methane Developments: Synthetic methane (e-methane) is gaining attention as a decarbonization tool, but high costs and technological challenges persist. Japan is a leader in pilot projects and supply chain development.

Demand Projections: Global gas demand remains flat, with gains in Asia-Pacific offset by declines in Europe and North America.
Russian Gas Role: Reduced pipeline flows to Europe (45% drop in 2023) heighten dependency on LNG.
Volatility Risks: Supply tightness, adverse weather, and geopolitical factors could trigger market volatility.
E-Methane Potential: Long-term growth in e-methane depends on technological advancements and policy support.

Support for Security of Supply: Gas storage injection needs in Europe for the 2023/24 season are less than in 2022, reflecting higher stock levels.
e-Methane Leadership: Japan set a target for e-methane to supply 90% of its city gas by 2050 and is actively partnering with international suppliers.

Source: IEA Gas Market Report, Q2 2023

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