2025年第三季度天然气市场报告_65页_2mb

报告摘要

Global gas demand growth slowed in 2025 to 1.3%, driven by high prices, uncertainty, and supply tightness, with China and India experiencing significant declines.
Demand is expected to accelerate to 2.8% in 2026, supported by increased LNG supply from major projects like North Field East and US exports.

Asia-Pacific: Gas demand weakened in 2025 due to macroeconomic uncertainty and high prices; China saw a 7% demand drop, while India slowed to 4%. Growth is projected to resume in 2026 at 5%+.
Europe: Demand surged 6.5% in 2025, boosted by gas use for electricity as renewables declined, with a primary gas share rise to ~40%.
North America: Demand increased 2.5% in 2025, with higher electricity use in Canada, but power generation growth slowed due to renewables.

The conflict between Israel and Iran disrupted regional trade, forcing temporary supply curtailments, affecting fertiliser prices, and highlighting energy security risks in the region.

Global LNG supply rose 4% in H1 2025 and is forecast to grow 5.5% in 2025, with accelerating growth to 7% in 2026.
Prices remain high and volatile due to tight supply, geopolitical risks, and competition for flexible cargoes.

European gas storage levels are at their lowest since 2022; strong injection needs weigh on market balances.
US storage levels reached average fills earlier than usual, easing summer pressures.

Ongoing geopolitical tensions, especially in the Middle East and Red Sea, risk disrupting flows.
While supply growth is strong in 2026, demand-side factors like coal-to-gas switching and renewables expansion present downward risks.

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