2025年第三季度天然气市场报告（英）_65页_3mb

Gas Market Report Summary - Q3-2025

Core Content Overview

This report provides a short-term outlook for the global natural gas market in 2025 and 2026, focusing on supply, demand, trade and price dynamics. It highlights the impact of geopolitical tensions, particularly the Israel-Iran conflict, on global gas markets and emphasizes the role of the Middle East in energy security.

Key Points

Global Gas Demand Trends

• 2024: Global gas demand returned to structural growth.
• H1 2025: Demand growth slowed significantly, with a year-on-year increase of only 1%.
• Regional Variations:
  • Europe: Demand increased by 6.5% y-o-y, driven by the electricity sector due to lower wind and hydro output.
  • North America: Demand rose by 2.5% y-o-y, mainly in Q1 due to colder weather.
  • Asia: Demand declined, especially in China (down 1%) and India (down 7%), due to macroeconomic uncertainty and high prices.
  • Eurasia: Gas consumption dropped by about 2% y-o-y due to a mild winter in Russia.
• Annual Forecast: Global gas demand growth is expected to slow from 2.8% in 2024 to 1.3% in 2025. In 2026, demand is projected to rise again, reaching an all-time high, with growth accelerating to 2%.

LNG Supply and Market Dynamics

• H1 2025: Global LNG supply increased by 4% (or 12 bcm), mainly due to the Plaquemines LNG facility in Louisiana.
• Russia: Piped gas exports to the EU fell by 45% y-o-y due to the halt of transit via Ukraine.
• Norway: Piped gas supplies to Europe declined by 4.5% y-o-y due to increased maintenance.
• Europe’s LNG Imports: Reached an all-time high of 92 bcm in H1 2025, up 25% y-o-y, driven by higher storage needs and reduced piped gas imports.
• 2026 Forecast: Global LNG supply is expected to grow at the fastest pace since 2019, with an increase of 7% (or 40 bcm), mainly driven by the U.S., Canada, and Qatar's North Field East project.

Price Volatility and Geopolitical Impact

• Geopolitical Tensions: Continued to influence gas prices, especially during the Israel-Iran conflict.
• June 2025 Crisis:
  • European TTF prices: Rose by 18% to USD 14/MBtu.
  • Asian LNG prices (Platts JKM): Increased by 16% to a four-month high of USD 14.8/MBtu.
  • Urea prices: Rose by over 30% to USD 510/t, with a sharp drop following the ceasefire on 24 June.
• Strait of Hormuz: A critical chokepoint for global LNG and oil trade. 85% of LNG flows through the Strait in H1 2025 went to Asian markets.
• Impact of Disruption: A temporary closure of the Strait of Hormuz would cause a 330 mcm/d drop in LNG supply, more than Norway's piped gas exports to Europe.

Middle East's Role in Global Energy Security

• The Middle East is a key player in global oil, natural gas, and fertiliser supply, contributing 30% of global oil production, 18% of global gas production, and 25% of global LNG supply.
• Israel's Role:
  • Became a major regional piped gas supplier to Egypt and Jordan.
  • Leviathan and Karish fields were shut down during the conflict, reducing production by 60% and 0.45 bcm.
  • Tamar field continued operations but redirected gas to the domestic market.
• Egypt's Situation:
  • Declined from a net exporter to a net importer due to falling production from the Zohr field.
  • 17% of its primary gas supply in H1 2025 came from Israel.
  • Fertiliser production was curtailed due to reduced gas supply.
• Jordan:
  • Relies heavily on Israeli piped gas (over 95% of its demand is met via imports).
  • FSRU moved from Jordan to Egypt in June 2025, leaving Jordan fully dependent on Israeli gas.
  • Dual-fired power plants helped maintain electricity supply during the crisis.

Iran's Natural Gas Sector

• Third-largest producer globally, after the U.S. and Russia.
• Domestic consumption: Around 95% of its output.
• 2023 Output: 270 bcm, likely increased in 2024 with the start of South Pars Phase 11.
• Strait of Hormuz: Iran's gas exports to Turkey and Iraq are vital to regional energy security.
• June 2025 Conflict Impact:
  • Drone strikes damaged South Pars Phase 14, reducing production by 12 mcm/d.
  • Fajr Jam plant caught fire but was quickly contained.
  • Ammonia and urea plants were shut down, contributing to urea price increases.

Key Takeaways

• Asia's demand was notably affected by macroeconomic uncertainty and high prices in H1 2025, with China and India experiencing declines.
• Europe saw a sharp rise in LNG imports due to reduced piped gas supplies and increased storage needs.
• The Israel-Iran conflict caused price volatility and supply disruptions, highlighting the fragility of the global gas balance.
• Strait of Hormuz is a critical route for LNG and oil, with 85% of flows going to Asia in H1 2025.
• LNG supply growth is expected to accelerate in 2026, driven by new projects in the U.S., Canada, and Qatar.
• Middle East plays a central role in energy and food security, especially through fertiliser production and gas trade.
• Iran faces supply shortages and limited storage, making it vulnerable to disruptions.