2016年中期天然气市场报告（英文版）_129页_3mb

报告摘要

GAS Medium-Term Market Report 2016 Summary

Core Content

This IEA Medium-Term Gas Market Report 2016 provides an analysis of global gas market trends from 2015 to 2021, highlighting the structural changes and challenges facing the industry. The report emphasizes the impact of supply and demand dynamics, energy transition, and policy frameworks on the future of gas markets.

Main Points

Global Gas Demand Trends

Global gas demand stagnated in 2014 but resumed growth in 2015.
The annual growth rate from 2012 to 2015 was 1.0%, significantly slower than the historical average of 2.2%.
By 2021, global gas demand is forecast to reach 3.9 trillion cubic metres, growing at an average annual rate of 1.5%.
The decline in coal prices and renewable energy support have limited the competitiveness of gas, particularly in Asia, where coal remains cheaper and demand growth has slowed.

Regional Demand Analysis

United States: Gas-fired power generation is expected to stagnate due to the rise of renewables and the limited potential for coal-to-gas switching after 2015.
China: Gas demand growth slowed to 4% in 2015 from 15% between 2009 and 2014. The report suggests that environmental policies and efforts to reduce coal dependence will drive future demand.
India: Gas demand is expected to grow robustly at an average rate of 6% over the forecast period, aided by lower oil prices, revised domestic pricing policies, and infrastructure development.
OECD Europe: Gas demand is projected to remain stable, with retiring coal and nuclear plants creating some demand for gas, but low coal prices and slow demand growth limit its potential.
Non-OECD Asia: Despite potential for growth, demand is not expected to offset the oversupply, which will likely persist into the 2020s.
Middle East and Africa: Gas demand is constrained by low oil prices and slower economic activity, while Latin America offers limited growth opportunities.

Key Supply Developments

Global Gas Supply Trends

Gas production growth is expected to slow due to weak demand and low prices, but US and Australian LNG will account for one-third of global incremental production.
US gas production is forecast to increase by over 100 bcm from 2015 to 2021, driven by shale gas and associated gas.
LNG export capacity is set to grow by 45% between 2015 and 2021, with US and Australia as the main contributors.

Supply Security Concerns

Oversupply is a major challenge, especially in Europe and Asia, where demand growth is slowing.
LNG supply risks include unavailable capacity, security issues, and feed-gas shortages, with 15% of global LNG capacity currently offline.
Low oil and gas prices may lead to reduced upstream investments, which could worsen feed-gas availability and supply security.

Trade Dynamics

Global LNG Trade

Japan and South Korea, which together account for 50% of global LNG imports, are expected to see declining demand, leading to shifts in trade patterns.
LNG export infrastructure is expanding rapidly, but market absorption is limited due to low demand and high coal prices in Europe.
Europe and China are the two main markets for Russian and Caspian gas, and competition is expected to intensify due to the availability of US and Qatari LNG.

LNG Market Outlook

LNG spot prices are expected to remain low, with Asia and North America prices converging.
Spot and short-term contracts are becoming more prominent, while long-term contracts are expected to be shorter, more flexible, and less oil-dependent.
LNG utilization rates are likely to remain below capacity, especially in 2017 and 2018, due to oversupply and slow demand growth.

Environmental and Policy Implications

Gas as a Transition Fuel

Gas is seen as a transition fuel in the move to a low-carbon energy system, due to its lower carbon footprint compared to coal.
Coal-to-gas switching in the US has significantly reduced emissions, but policy support for renewables and low coal prices have limited its effectiveness.
The report calls for stringent environmental standards, particularly methane leakage control, to ensure gas's role in sustainability.

Carbon Pricing and Policy

Carbon pricing could help boost gas demand and reduce emissions, especially in regions where gas is becoming more competitive.
The Paris Agreement provides a framework for gas to play a more strategic role in decarbonizing energy systems.

Market Risks and Resilience

Market rebalancing for gas is expected to be slower than for oil, due to price-inelastic supply and structural demand changes.
Supply security remains a key concern, with natural disasters, political instability, and technical failures posing risks.
The IEA is working on global gas security initiatives, including natural gas resilience assessments.

Investment and Infrastructure

LNG investment has slowed due to low prices, with only 25 bcm of new capacity sanctioned in 2015, down from 35 bcm in previous years.
Most new LNG projects are already under long-term contracts, making them less vulnerable to price fluctuations.
Infrastructure development in developing Asian countries is expected to increase LNG import capacity, helping to balance markets.

Conclusion

The report highlights that global gas markets are undergoing a major transformation, driven by increased LNG supply, slower demand growth, and environmental and policy shifts. While gas remains a key player in the transition to a cleaner energy system, its growth is constrained by low prices, slow demand, and supply risks. The IEA plays a central role in monitoring and analyzing these changes to support policy makers in ensuring secure, clean, and affordable energy.