2023-12-07-莱坊-Global_Prime_Residential_Forecast_2024_8页_1mb

Global Prime Residential Forecast 2024

Key Summary:

• Rising Forecasts: Knight Frank revises up its global prime residential price forecast for both 2023 (now projected at 2.4% growth vs initial 1.7%) and 2024 (now projected at 2.5% growth vs initial 2.1%). The improvement is most notable for the 2023 outlook.
• Drivers of Optimism: Enhanced buyer confidence (inflation easing, interest rates consolidating), increased cash purchases (52% vs 46% six months ago), geopolitical tensions acknowledged but markets holding up, and anticipation of new property cycles attracting opportunistic buyers.
• Strongest Cities:
  • Dubai: Leads with expected 14% growth in 2023. Expected 5% growth in 2024, benefiting from Chinese and Indian demand and limited supply.
  • Auckland: Projects a 10% increase in luxury prices for 2024, framed as a market correction.
  • Europe: Madrid (6.5%), Stockholm (5%), Seoul (4.5%), Miami (4%) are top performers.
  • London: Prime central London expected milder correction (0%) compared to broader market (~ -1%), due to cash sales in affluent zones and lower prices vs peaks.
• Key Headwinds & Risks:
  • Ongoing: Inflation concerns (especially regarding rates), higher taxes on property/wealth globally, government debt levels, supply constraints (construction costs, labor, planning delays), potential wealth flow shifts (especially from China?).
  • Political: Election uncertainty, potential policy shifts (like NZ government change affecting foreign buyers), restrictions on foreign ownership (e.g., Hong Kong stamp duty, NYC de facto ban on Airbnbs).
  • Geopolitical: Uncertain impact of Middle East conflict on regional costs.
• Global Trend: Cash is king, demand is being scrutinized, supply constraints persist despite economic resilience, luxury segment particularly attractive, property seen as a relative safe haven and diversification tool, influenced by holiday trends and global summits.
• Events to Monitor: Key dates involve elections (India, UK, US), G20 Summit (Brazil), Paris Olympics (July), significant for market sentiment and potential policy shifts.
• Future Outlook: Sentiment-driven, selective demand, focus on supply-side constraints, macroeconomic factors (inflation, interest rates, economic divergence), property's role in capital flight and asset allocation.