2022-11-29-莱坊-Prime_Global_Forecast_2023_6页_4mb

Prime Residential Price Predictions for 2023: Summary

Core Content

Knight Frank's global research teams have released their prime residential price forecasts for 2023, reflecting a shift in the housing market landscape after two years of pandemic-driven price surges. The report also reviews the accuracy of their 2022 predictions and highlights key trends influencing the market.

Main Points

2023 Price Forecast

• Knight Frank's global research network now expects prime prices to rise by 2.0% on average in 2023, down from a previous forecast of 2.7%.
• Despite the slowdown, this growth rate is still higher than that recorded in six of the last ten years.
• Dubai leads the 25-city forecast with 13.5% annual growth, although the rate is more sustainable compared to the previous two years.
• European cities occupy six of the top ten spots, with Dublin, Madrid, Lisbon, and Paris expected to see 4% growth.
• Singapore is the only Asian city in the top ten and one of four cities where the forecast has increased in the past six months.
• New York forecasts 2% growth, which remains above the rate recorded in nine of the last ten years.
• London and Seoul are expected to see price declines of 3% in 2023, though London's prime central prices still show growth compared to 2021.

2022 Performance

• The report acknowledges that 2022 was the year of cooling measures, but central banks have taken the lead in controlling price growth.
• Knight Frank's teams got within 2 percentage points of actual growth for 14 of the 25 cities (56%).
• Dubai was an outlier, as its price growth was unexpectedly high due to its relative affordability and safe haven status.
• Vancouver, Seoul, and Auckland also deviated from forecasts due to unanticipated factors such as foreign buyer bans and sudden rate hikes.

Key Trends and Risks

Top Five Risks

1. Rising mortgage rates
2. Geopolitical tensions
3. Higher taxes (income, wealth, property)
4. Currency shifts
5. Undersupply of luxury homes

Top Five Opportunities

1. Safe haven capital flight
2. Infrastructure investments (e.g., new transport links)
3. Volatility in alternative assets (e.g., stock market, crypto)
4. Currency play
5. Target markets offering relative value

HNWI Insights

Optimism and Ownership

• Singaporean HNWIs are the most optimistic about future price growth, with 86% expecting an increase.
• Chinese HNWIs own the most residential property globally, averaging 3.8 homes, with 68% owning three or more.
• London is the most popular city for HNWIs to purchase property over the next one to two years.
• 94% of Chinese mainland HNWIs plan to buy a property in 2023, while only 44% of Singaporean HNWIs intend to add to their portfolios.

Purchase Motivation

• Chinese mainland HNWIs are the most motivated purchasers, with 94% planning to buy a property in 2023.
• UK and US HNWIs show lower motivation, with 54% and 49% respectively.
• Rising mortgage rates and higher taxes are the main concerns for HNWIs, with the former being the primary threat in the UK, US, and Singapore, and the latter being the top concern in China.

Conclusion

The global prime residential market is experiencing a shift from rapid growth to more sustainable trends. While prices are expected to rise in 2023, the growth is slower than in previous years, and some cities face potential declines. The market remains influenced by macroeconomic factors such as inflation, debt costs, and geopolitical tensions, but also presents opportunities through capital flight, currency dynamics, and policy shifts. Understanding the behavior and motivations of high-net-worth individuals is crucial for predicting future market movements.