期刊-NBER美国国民经济研究局-Summer1992_43页_744kb

MBER Reporter Summary: Monetary Economics and Financial Markets

Core Content

The document outlines the evolution of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) program in Financial Markets and Monetary Economics (FMME), which was replaced by three new research programs in 1992. These new programs focus on Monetary Economics, Asset Pricing, and Corporate Finance, reflecting a shift in research priorities and the need for more specialized and focused studies due to the rapid expansion of the field.

Main Points and Key Information

1. Overview of the FMME Program

• The FMME program began over a dozen years prior to the document and aimed to integrate research from economics and finance departments.
• It sought to examine the connections between financial assets and broader economic behavior, both at the micro and macro levels.
• Collaborative projects included the study of debt and equity roles in capital formation and the impact of monetary policy on economic activity.
• The program faced challenges due to the growing volume of research, leading to the decision to split into three new programs.

2. New Research Programs

• Monetary Economics: Directed by Benjamin M. Friedman, with N. Gregory Mankiw as Associate Director.
• Asset Pricing: Directed by John Y. Campbell.
• Corporate Finance: Directed by Robert W. Vishny.

Each program has a narrower focus and smaller size, allowing for more in-depth and collaborative research.

3. Changes in Monetary Economics Research

• In the late 1970s, the prevailing view was that money growth was a sufficient indicator of central bank activity and that disinflation could be achieved with minimal economic cost.
• The 1980s, particularly the U.S. experience with financial deregulation, disinflation, and globalization, challenged these assumptions.
• Researchers began to focus on the mechanisms by which monetary policy affects economic activity, rather than just whether it does.
• The idea that speculative markets might influence asset prices independently of fundamentals gained traction.
• New research explored the role of exchange rates, interest rates, and financial intermediaries in monetary policy.

4. Asset Pricing Research

• The 1987 stock market crash highlighted the need to reconsider the efficiency of financial markets.
• Research shifted towards exploring non-fundamental factors that influence asset prices, such as information asymmetry, herding behavior, and feedback trading.
• Theories now consider how speculative behavior can magnify price fluctuations rather than dampen them.
• These insights have implications for asset return features like skewness and fat tails, as well as for practical financial applications such as trading rules and portfolio insurance.

5. Corporate Finance Research

• The 1980s saw a surge in corporate leverage, particularly in the U.S.
• Research questions focused on:
  • The impact of leverage on productivity and economic growth.
  • The role of financial intermediaries in credit allocation and financial system stability.
  • The asymmetric information theories that explain credit restrictions.
  • The comparison of financial systems across countries, especially the differences between the U.S., Germany, and Japan.
• Studies examined how leverage ratios might differ in risk across countries and whether these differences affect international competitiveness.

6. Research Summary: Growth, Industrialization, and Finance

• J. Bradford De Long discusses the role of machinery investment in economic growth and productivity.
• He argues that machinery investment is a key driver of productivity growth and that it has played a central role in the industrial revolutions.
• Using data from Robert Summers and Alan Heston, De Long and Lawrence H. Summers found a strong correlation between machinery investment and productivity growth.
• A 3 percentage point difference in the share of national product devoted to machinery investment was associated with a 1 percentage point increase in the annual growth rate of output per worker.
• The cumulative effect of such differences over 25 years led to a 28% increase in wealth.
• The social rate of return on machinery investment was estimated to be 30% per year, far exceeding the private profit rate of about 10% per year.

7. NBER Structure and Contact Information

• The NBER is a private, nonprofit research organization established in 1920.
• Key officers include:
  • Chairman: George T. Conklin, Jr.
  • Vice Chairman: Paul W. McCracken
  • Treasurer: Charles A. Walworth
  • President and CEO: Martin Feldstein
  • Executive Director: Geoffrey Carliner
  • Director of Finance and Administration: Sam Parker
• Contributions to the NBER are tax-deductible.
• The Reporter is issued for informational purposes and can be freely reproduced with proper attribution.

8. Additional Sections

• NBER Profiles: Lists of directors by university and other organizations.
• Conferences: Information on upcoming NBER conferences.
• Bureau News: Updates on NBER activities.
• Bureau Books: Publications by NBER researchers.
• Current Working Papers: A list of recent working papers from the NBER.

Conclusion

The document reflects the evolution of monetary economics and financial markets research over the past decade. The shift from a broad, integrated program to three specialized programs has allowed for more focused and in-depth exploration of key issues in each area. The changing economic and financial landscape, particularly in the 1980s, has influenced the direction of research, emphasizing mechanisms, behavioral aspects, and international comparisons. The NBER continues to be a leading institution in these fields, producing high-quality empirical and theoretical research that informs both academic and policy discussions.