期刊-NBER美国国民经济研究局-Summer1994_52页_2mb

NBER Reporter Summary: Summer 1994

Core Content

The NBER Reporter for Summer 1994 provides an overview of the National Bureau of Economic Research's (NBER) research activities in the field of International Trade and Investment. The report highlights various research areas, including trade patterns, trade policy, regional and multilateral trade agreements, and foreign direct investment (FDI). It also includes summaries of recent research on economic growth, financial conditions, retirement analysis, and other related topics.

Main Research Areas

1. International Trade and Investment Program

The NBER's International Trade and Investment Program focuses on four key areas:

• Trade Patterns:

  • Research has moved beyond traditional explanations like resource endowments to consider monopolistic competition and product diversity.
  • Elhanan Helpman’s work shows that trade flows can be explained by a simple equation relating country sizes, especially in OECD countries.
  • David Hummels and James A. Levinsohn extended this to non-OECD countries like South American and African nations.
  • There is a puzzle about why this equation fits these countries, as their trade patterns are not expected to be driven by monopolistic competition.
  • Robert C. Feenstra and Tzu-Han Yang, along with Gary G. Hamilton, provided further evidence on the link between market structure and trade patterns, showing that vertical integration reduces product diversity.

• Trade Policy:

  • Research includes the impact of import quotas, export subsidies, antidumping duties, and countervailing duties.
  • Dani Rodrik and Barbara J. Spencer challenge the view that these policies are inherently inefficient, showing cases where they may have worked.
  • Kala Krishna and Ling Hui Tan studied the Hong Kong textile quota license market.
  • The deadweight loss from quality upgrades in U.S. imports of Japanese automobiles in the 1980s was analyzed by Feenstra.
  • Thomas Prusa and Wendy L. Hansen examined the cumulation provision in U.S. trade laws and its impact on injury determinations.
  • Robert W. Staiger and Frank A. Wolak looked at antidumping law effects and suit filing behavior.
  • Grossman and Helpman developed models on how trade policies are shaped by political economy interactions between politicians and special interest groups.

• Regional and Multilateral Trade Agreements:

  • The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and the Uruguay Round of GATT negotiations are highlighted as major developments.
  • Regional agreements may reduce multilateral cooperation in the early stages due to trade diversion expectations.
  • Rules of origin are crucial in regional agreements to prevent import leakage.
  • Frankel and others explored the regionalization of trade and its implications for world efficiency.
  • Studies on the 1930s trade disintegration and future trade structure between Mexico and the U.S. were also conducted.

• Foreign Direct Investment (FDI):

  • Research focuses on multinational firm decisions and their implications for trade flows.
  • Brainard developed a model explaining horizontal integration through market access.
  • FDI is shown to help firms retain market shares and reduce employment volatility.
  • The factor proportions theory is challenged, as FDI is more influenced by country similarity in factor proportions and income levels.
  • Aizenman argued that FDI can reduce managed trade and increase cyclical dumping, both of which may improve welfare.

Key Research Contributions

• Elhanan Helpman and David Hummels introduced the monopolistic competition model to explain trade patterns.
• Robert C. Feenstra and Tzu-Han Yang explored the link between market structure and trade flows.
• Grossman and Helpman examined the political economy of trade policy and the viability of free trade agreements.
• Kiminori Matsuyama and Takaaki Takahashi analyzed the welfare effects of regional concentration.
• James E. Rauch studied agglomeration economies and the impact of bureaucracies on city growth.
• Gordon H. Hanson investigated the impact of trade liberalization on regional wage structures.
• Deborah Swenson and others found that Japanese firms tend to cluster in regions with other Japanese firms.
• Jeffrey A. Frankel explored the regionalization of trade and its efficiency implications.
• Robert E. Lipsey analyzed long-term trends in FDI and outward investment in the U.S.

Research Summaries

1. Recent Research on Economic Growth

• Robert J. Barro discusses the importance of economic growth in shaping long-term standards of living.
• The U.S. real per capita GDP grew from $2244 in 1870 to $18,258 in 1990, at an average annual rate of 1.75%.
• A 1% lower growth rate would have reduced U.S. GDP to $5519, placing it 37th among 127 countries.
• A 1% higher growth rate would have raised U.S. GDP to $60,841, which is 3.3 times the actual value and unprecedented.
• The average growth rate across 114 countries was 1.8%, with South Korea at 6.7% and Iraq at -2.1%.
• Convergence theories suggest that countries with similar factor returns will grow at similar rates, but openness and technology diffusion also play a role.

Conclusion

The NBER's Summer 1994 report emphasizes the complexity of international trade and investment, highlighting how market structures, trade policies, and FDI influence economic growth and global trade dynamics. It also underscores the importance of long-term growth in determining living standards and the role of political economy in shaping international agreements and trade outcomes. The report concludes with a call for continued research in these areas, especially regarding the impact of trade policy and the efficiency of regional trade blocs.