20180525-凯基证券亚洲-Investment_Daily_5页_220kb

Market Summary

Core Market Indicators

Hang Seng Index (HSI)

• 24 May: 30,460 (+94)
• 23 May: 30,665 (-568)
• 21 May: 31,234 (+186)
• Market Turnover (mn): 89,900 (24 May), 115,400 (23 May), 95,900 (21 May)
• HSI Turnover ($bn): 31.30 (24 May), 48.84 (23 May), 36.46 (21 May)
• Technical Indicators:
  • 10-day MA: 31,039
  • 50-day MA: 30,708
  • 250-day MA: 28,916
  • 14-day RSI: 50.2
  • Primary Resistance: 31,000
  • Primary Support: 30,000

Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI)

• 24 May: 12,152 (+61)
• 23 May: 12,090 (-258)
• 21 May: 12,349 (-5)
• Market Turnover (mn): 12,101 (24 May), 12,037 (23 May), 12,325 (21 May)
• HSCEI Turnover ($bn): 25.76 (24 May), 40.90 (23 May), 30.05 (21 May)
• Technical Indicators:
  • 10-day MA: 12,323
  • 50-day MA: 12,251
  • 250-day MA: 11,609
  • 14-day RSI: 47.5
  • Primary Resistance: 12,420
  • Primary Support: 11,800

Market Outlook

• HSI: Expected to trade between 30,500 and 30,900 today.
• Market Trends: Hong Kong stock market showed no clear direction, with a slight increase in HSI and H-share Index. However, market turnover shrank, and technical indicators suggest a weak trend.
• Geopolitical Concerns: President Trump's cancellation of the North Korea summit caused market uncertainty.
• Energy Sector Impact: US oil price decline due to increased inventories led to energy-related stocks falling.
• US Market: The Dow fell early but recovered late, ending at 24,812, while the Nasdaq fell slightly to 7,424.
• Southbound Fund Flow: Two consecutive days of outflow is not favorable for Hong Kong stocks.

Company Highlights

Lenovo (0992)

• Full Year FY18: Net loss of US$189mn due to one-off tax provision, but 4Q/FY18 net profit of US$33mn beat expectations.
• Revenue: Full year FY18 revenue rose 5% to US$45.35bn, driven by PC and data center business.
• PC Business: 4Q/FY18 revenue increased 16% to US$7.7bn, with double-digit growth for two consecutive quarters.
• Data Center Business: Full year FY18 revenue rose 8% to US$4.39bn, but pre-tax loss reached US$305mn.
• Mobile Business: Revenue fell 6% to US$7.24bn, with pre-tax loss narrowing from US$566mn to US$463mn.
• Valuation: Current P/E ratio is 14x for FY19, with a dividend yield of 6.8%.
• Price Support: Strong support at HK$3.53 (52-week low).
• Analyst: Chua Tit Hong, CFA

China Aoyuan (3883)

• Land Bank: Total land bank of approximately 24.87 million sq.m. with an average cost of RMB2,131 per sq.m.
• Big Bay Area: 30% of land bank located within the Big Bay Area, with 50 projects and 13 City Renewal Projects.
• Sales Performance: Contracted sales for April reached RMB7,210 million, up 187% YoY. First four months of 2018 saw RMB20,820 million in sales, 143% increase YoY.
• Future Outlook: Plans to acquire 35-36 billion RMB in land this year, aiming for contracted sales of 1,000 billion RMB in 2019.
• Valuation: Current P/E ratio of 6.1 for 2018, with a dividend yield of 4.7%.
• Analyst: Li Kam Ming, CFA, FRM

Stock Market Activity

Top 10 Most Actively Traded Stocks (SH-HK Connect Southbound)

• TENCENT (700): High turnover, significant buy and sell trades.
• ICBC (1398): High sell trades, leading to high turnover.
• CCB (939): Moderate turnover with higher sell trades.
• YANZHOU COAL (1171): High buy and sell trades.
• CM BANK (3968): Moderate turnover with significant sell trades.
• ALI HEALTH (241): High turnover, with balanced buy and sell trades.
• ALI PICTURES (1060): High turnover, with higher buy trades.
• PING AN (2318): Moderate turnover with minimal price change.
• CHINA SHENHUA (1088): High turnover, with significant sell trades.
• EVERGRANDE (3333): Low turnover with minimal price change.

Top 10 Most Actively Traded Stocks (SZ-HK Connect Southbound)

• NEW HIGHER EDU (2001): High buy trades, moderate sell trades.
• TENCENT (700): High turnover with balanced buy and sell trades.
• ALI HEALTH (241): Moderate turnover, with higher sell trades.
• CONCH VENTURE (586): High buy trades, minimal sell trades.
• SUNAC (1918): Moderate turnover with higher sell trades.
• ALI PICTURES (1060): Moderate turnover, with higher sell trades.
• MAPLELEAF EDU (1317): High buy trades, moderate sell trades.
• FREEMAN FINTECH (279): High buy trades, moderate sell trades.
• KINGDEE INT'L (268): High buy trades, minimal sell trades.
• GENSCRIPT BIO (1548): Moderate turnover with higher sell trades.

Short Sell Statistics

• Top 10 Short Sell Stocks:
  • TENCENT (00700.HK): Short sell ratio of 14.87%
  • PING AN (02318.HK): Short sell ratio of 28.08%
  • CCB (00939.HK): Short sell ratio of 25.15%
  • HSCEI ETF (02828.HK): Short sell ratio of 39.44%
  • CSOP A50 ETF (02822.HK): Short sell ratio of 68.22%
  • CAM CSI300 (03188.HK): Short sell ratio of 45.10%
  • ICBC (01398.HK): Short sell ratio of 20.57%
  • SINOPEC CORP (00386.HK): Short sell ratio of 19.09%
  • CNOOC (00883.HK): Short sell ratio of 21.29%
  • PETROCHINA (00857.HK): Short sell ratio of 25.51%

Economic Calendars

• Hong Kong:
  • 24 May: Lenovo Group (992) Annual Result
  • Trading Closed: The Birthday of the Buddha
• US:
  • Wed: May Markit Manufacturing PMI, April New Home Sales
  • Thur: FOMC Meeting Minutes (May 2), April Initial Jobless Claim, April Continuing Jobless Claim, April Existing Home Sales
  • Fri: April Durable Goods Order MoM, May University of Michigan Sentiment
• Euro Zone:
  • Wed: May Markit Manufacturing PMI, May Consumer Confidence

Disclaimer

• The information and opinions in this report are for informational purposes only.
• KGI Asia Ltd. does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information.
• No liability is accepted for any use of this report or its contents.
• This report is not an invitation or offer to buy or sell securities.