期刊-NBER美国国民经济研究局-2016number3_36页_3mb

NBER Reporter Summary - 2016, Number 3

Core Content

The NBER Reporter is a quarterly publication by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), a private, nonprofit research organization established in 1920. It provides summaries of NBER research, highlighting key findings and insights from various studies. The 2016 issue includes several research summaries, with a focus on the U.S. market for higher education, business cycle impacts on health behaviors, and trade policies in China.

Main Points and Key Information

1. The U.S. Market for Higher Education

• Market Characteristics: The U.S. higher education market is unique in that it is not centrally controlled, unlike many other countries. It is a decentralized system with a wide range of institutions, including public, private non-profit, and for-profit schools.
• Selectivity and Integration:
  • Highly selective institutions (e.g., top-tier universities) are well-integrated across geography, with strong competition for students and faculty.
  • These schools have a strong positive correlation between students' college readiness (CR) and the educational resources they provide.
• Productivity of Institutions:
  • Productivity (value-added per dollar of resources) is relatively flat among highly selective institutions, even though they have more resources.
  • In contrast, non-selective institutions show lower and more dispersed productivity.
• Single-Crossing Property:
  • Higher CR students make more productive use of educational resources.
  • This property has been confirmed by empirical data and has significant implications for income growth and educational outcomes.
• Market Forces and Resource Allocation:
  • Strong market forces are necessary to ensure that educational resources are allocated efficiently.
  • The evidence suggests that market forces are more pronounced in highly selective institutions.

2. Business Cycle Impacts on Health Behaviors

• Unemployment and Health: The Great Recession led to a significant rise in unemployment, which imposed a financial burden on households. However, the impact on health is debated.
• Health Behaviors as Mediators: The study examines how changes in labor demand affect health behaviors, which in turn influence overall health outcomes.
• Energy Expenditure and Physical Activity:
  • Prior research on unemployment and physical activity has focused on recreational exercise, but this is only a small part of total physical activity.
  • Total physical activity, not just exercise, is a key determinant of health.
• Time Use and MET Values:
  • The American Time Use Survey (ATUS) is used to measure time spent on various activities and their intensity using MET (Metabolic Equivalent of Task) values.
  • This allows for a more comprehensive understanding of how changes in labor demand affect health behaviors.

3. Additional Topics

• China's Trade Policies: The issue includes a summary of research on China's trade policies, though the details are not fully provided in the excerpt.
• Multinational Firms and Value Chains: Another research summary discusses the role of multinational firms, value chains, and vertical integration in the global economy.
• Regional Evidence on Business Cycle Fluctuations: This section explores how regional differences affect business cycle fluctuations and countercyclical policies.
• NBER News and Conferences: The report includes updates on NBER activities, such as conferences and program meetings, and mentions the availability of NBER books.

Key Figures and Data

• Figure 1: Shows that educational resources increase with college readiness (CR).
• Figure 2: Indicates that students applying to highly selective schools tend to apply to multiple schools in different communities.
• Figure 3: Reveals that students account for a smaller proportion of revenue at non-selective schools compared to highly selective ones.
• Figure 4: Demonstrates that value-added increases with selectivity, though not as rapidly as raw earnings.
• Figure 5: Highlights that the lifetime educational resources experienced by students increase with selectivity.
• Figure 6: Shows that the average productivity of a dollar is relatively flat among selective institutions.
• Figure 7: Indicates that non-selective institutions vary widely in productivity.

Broader Implications

• Economic Growth and Education: If the single-crossing property holds, then increasing college readiness across all students would lead to greater economic growth.
• Resource Allocation: Educational resources should scale with college readiness to maximize productivity and economic growth.
• Policy Recommendations:
  • Policies that enhance information, integration, and competition in higher education are likely to boost economic growth.
  • These policies may lead to a more efficient allocation of educational resources.
• Importance of Primary and Secondary Education: Ensuring that all students attain high college readiness is crucial for promoting income mobility and equality, as single-crossing in tertiary education puts pressure on earlier education systems to be more inclusive.

Conclusion

The NBER Reporter for 2016, Number 3, provides a comprehensive overview of the U.S. higher education market and its productivity, as well as the impact of business cycles on health behaviors. The research highlights the importance of market forces in driving educational outcomes and economic growth, and suggests that policies promoting better information, competition, and integration in education can lead to more efficient resource allocation and improved societal outcomes.