期刊-NBER美国国民经济研究局-2007number2_48页_1mb

NBER Reporter Summary - 2007 Number 2

Core Content Overview

The NBER Reporter issue from 2007 Number 2 provides a comprehensive overview of the research and activities of the NBER's Program in Monetary Economics, highlighting its diverse scope and relevance to both academic and policy discussions. The program focuses on a broad range of topics related to monetary economics, including monetary policy, financial markets, and the behavior of households and firms. It also discusses the role of NBER researchers in shaping monetary policy and the impact of their work on central banks globally.

Main Research Topics and Key Findings

1. The Zero Lower Bound on Nominal Interest Rates

• Core Concept: When nominal interest rates hit zero, monetary policy loses one of its primary tools for stimulating the economy.
• Research Insight: Central banks can still influence the economy by managing expectations of future money supply and inflation.
• Key Papers:
  • 10195, 9968 (Svensson & Woodford)
  • 10679, 11056 (expectations management)
  • 9623, 10290, 10840, 11374 (fiscal policy implications)
  • 10818, 10878, 11151 (Japan's experience)
• Policy Implication: The Federal Reserve has started to incorporate forward-looking statements into its policy communications to manage expectations.

2. Optimal Monetary Policy

• Historical Context: Monetary policy was once conducted informally, without clear rules or frameworks.
• Current Approach: Researchers are developing micro-founded models to guide optimal monetary policy.
• Key Findings:
  • Targeting Rules are favored over instrument rules due to the central bank's access to more information than can be explicitly included in a rule.
  • Forward-looking behavior is essential for effective monetary policy.
• Challenges: Models still lack realism in terms of inflation concerns and price-setting assumptions.
• Key Papers:
  • 10838, 10839 (Benigno & Woodford)
  • 9491, 9929, 11523, 11896, 12158, 12898 (forward-looking models)
  • 9421, 11167 (Svensson)

3. The Effects of Monetary Policy

• Classic Question: How does monetary policy affect output and inflation?
• Recent Research:
  • Gary Richardson & William Troost found that Federal Reserve intervention during the Great Depression reduced bank failures in certain regions.
  • Ben Bernanke, Jean Boivin, & Piotr Eliasz used factor analysis to better estimate the effects of monetary policy.
  • Linda S. Goldberg & Michael W. Klein showed that the European Central Bank's commitment to inflation stability influenced market expectations.
  • Refet Gürkaynak, Andrew Levin, & Eric Swanson found that explicit inflation targeting helps anchor long-term inflation expectations.
• Key Papers:
  • 12591, 11792, 11767, 12876
• Methodological Note: Discrete policy actions and data releases allow for precise estimation of monetary policy effects.

4. The Great Moderation

• Definition: A period of reduced business cycle volatility in modern economies.
• Key Observations:
  • The U.S. has experienced only two mild recessions in the last 25 years, compared to eight in the prior 35 years.
  • Similar patterns have been observed in other major industrialized countries.
• Theories:
  • Structural Changes: Improved inventory management technology may have contributed to the moderation.
  • Good Luck: Declines in exogenous shocks (e.g., oil market stability) may explain the trend.
  • Improved Policy: Better understanding of the economy and more consistent policy may have reduced volatility.
• Key Papers:
  • 9459 (U.S. policy changes)
  • 9127, 9859 (Stock & Watson)
  • 10384 (Ramey & Vine)
  • 10973, 11147, 11777, 11946, 12022 (ongoing research)

Key Figures and Contributions

• Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer are the directors of the Program in Monetary Economics at UC Berkeley.
• Ben S. Bernanke (former NBER Research Associate and Director) became the 8th Chair of the Federal Reserve.
• Mervyn A. King (on leave) is the Governor of the Bank of England.
• Stanley Fischer is the Governor of the Bank of Israel.
• Janet Yellen (on leave) is the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
• Frederic S. Mishkin is a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.
• Lars E.O. Svensson is a Deputy Governor of the Riksbank.
• David G. Blanchflower is part of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England.

Program and Institutional Information

• The NBER is a private, nonprofit research organization founded in 1920.
• The Board of Directors includes prominent economists and representatives from various organizations.
• Directors by University Appointment include scholars from top institutions such as MIT, Stanford, and Harvard.
• Directors by Appointment of Other Organizations include members from the American Economic Association, American Institute of Certified Public Accountants, and others.
• The NBER relies on private funding for its independence and flexibility.
• The Reporter is issued for informational purposes and is not copyrighted.

Conclusion

The NBER's Program in Monetary Economics is a vibrant and diverse research initiative that contributes significantly to both academic understanding and practical monetary policy. Researchers explore a wide array of topics, from the zero lower bound on interest rates to the Great Moderation, and provide insights that help central banks and policymakers make more informed decisions. The program emphasizes the importance of empirical and theoretical research, and its work continues to shape the field of monetary economics through innovative methodologies and interdisciplinary collaboration.