兰德-欧洲防务战略自治-跨大西洋愿景及其对北约、美国和欧盟关系的影响（英）-2021.11-90页_2mb

报告摘要

Summary of "European Strategic Autonomy in Defence"

Core Content

This report, conducted by RAND, explores the concept of European strategic autonomy in defence and its implications for the EU, NATO, and EU-US relations. The study uses a scenario-based methodology to examine three possible futures of European strategic autonomy in defence, highlighting the uncertain prospects of achieving this goal and the complex interplay of internal and external factors.

Main Views

European strategic autonomy has evolved from a focus on military capabilities to a broader concept that includes economic, technological, and security-related issues.
The core of the concept remains rooted in defence and security, with a state-centric (Westphalian) understanding of sovereignty.
The term is used to describe the EU's ability to act independently in security and defence matters, while still collaborating with like-minded partners.
The ambition for European strategic autonomy has increased since the UK's Brexit in 2016, driven by a deteriorating security environment, a desire to rejuvenate the EU, and the removal of the UK's veto on certain initiatives.

Key Factors Influencing Strategic Autonomy

The report identifies several factors directly influencing the development of European strategic autonomy in defence, as outlined in Table 0.1:

Level of conflict in the world
Threat perception across European nations
Perception of the U.S. as a reliable ally
Credibility of NATO
Level of ambition of European strategic autonomy
Development of a common strategic culture in Europe
European leadership
Aggregate military strength of European forces
Degree of complementarity with NATO
Level of interoperability
Involvement of the UK post-Brexit
Third party access to the European defence market
National defence spending of European nations
EU common funding

Possible Futures of European Strategic Autonomy

The study outlines three scenarios that represent different possible trajectories of European strategic autonomy in defence:

Scenario 1: A True European Pillar of NATO

World conflict level: Increases
EU decision making: Led by France, Germany, UK (cohesive)
NATO-EU complementarity: Increases
U.S. perception: Reliable ally
Defence spending: ≥2% GDP
Interoperability: Increases
Third party access: Increases

Scenario 2: European Defence Integration Falters; Transatlantic Fragmentation

World conflict level: Decreases
EU decision making: Fragmented, no UK involvement post-Brexit
NATO-EU complementarity: Decreases
U.S. perception: Mixed
Defence spending: Decreases
Interoperability: Decreases
Third party access: No change

Scenario 3: A Strong Europe Goes Its Own Way

World conflict level: Increases
EU decision making: European Security Council set up
NATO-EU complementarity: Decreases
U.S. perception: Cannot be relied upon
Defence spending: Increases but most countries do not meet 2% GDP target
Interoperability: Increases
Third party access: Decreases

Implications of Strategic Autonomy

A stronger EU could benefit NATO and the U.S., but the risk of divergence from NATO is a concern, especially for the U.S.
EU-NATO complementarity is a stated objective, but achieving it in practice remains difficult due to persistent obstacles.
US strategic orientations will continue to influence the pace and direction of European strategic autonomy.
External challenges such as Russia and China will also shape the future of European strategic autonomy, as their policies and actions affect security, technology, trade, and energy.
The ambiguity surrounding the term "strategic autonomy" may hinder constructive dialogue and action.

Policy Options for Success

To ensure the positive realisation of European strategic autonomy, the report outlines several policy options:

Fostering constructive dialogue between EU and US partners to enhance mutual understanding and trust.
Encouraging a proactive and unambiguous US support for European strategic autonomy, recognizing the benefits for both the EU and NATO.
Deepening cooperation between EU and NATO, using the Strategic Compass and Strategic Concept as frameworks for alignment.
Restoring a constructive relationship with the UK, given its significant contribution to European defence and security.

Conclusion

European strategic autonomy in defence is a complex and evolving concept, with uncertain prospects and significant implications for transatlantic relations. The success of this initiative will depend on internal coherence, external support, and the ability to navigate geopolitical challenges from the U.S., Russia, and China.

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