2025-06-15-Jefferies-GMR机场（GMRAIRPO）_杰富瑞2025年美英印度开放日要点_9页_330kb

Summary of Jefferies US/UK India Access Day 2025: GMR Airports

Core Content

Jefferies hosted GMR Airport's management for access days in the US and UK, highlighting the company's strategic direction and financial outlook. The report outlines key areas of focus, including regulatory developments, revenue growth, and capital structure improvements.

Main Points

• Regulatory Landscape and Tariff Changes:

  • GMR Airport has received a new tariff for Delhi Airport, which is expected to significantly boost profits and moderate leverage ratios.
  • The management emphasized the positive impact of the new tariff on the company's financial performance.

• Growth Strategy:

  • Passenger Growth: GMR Airport is experiencing steady passenger growth, with a focus on expanding its key airports into regional hubs.
  • Non-Aero Revenue: The company is actively pursuing non-aero revenue opportunities through the introduction of new retail formats, luxury brands, and improved services.
  • Transfer Traffic: GMR aims to increase transfer traffic at Delhi Airport from ~25% to 50% over the long term, driven by the internationalization of India's traffic mix.

• Platform Consolidation:

  • GMR is consolidating all non-aero businesses under the GAL platform to reduce complexity, leverage economies of scale, and enhance offerings.
  • Starting from 2QFY26, the GAL platform will take over duty-free operations at Delhi and cargo operations at DIAL, following the end of concession agreements.

• Real Estate Monetization:

  • The company is actively pursuing real estate monetization opportunities, focusing on a balanced mix of development and rental income.
  • GMR is exploring partial self-development to capture future value from prime airport commercial land.

• Financial Performance:

  • Revenue Growth: Revenue is expected to grow significantly, reaching INR181,966 mn in FY27.
  • EBITDA Growth: EBITDA is projected to increase from INR21,026 mn in FY22 to INR63,138 mn in FY27.
  • Profitability: The company is moving towards profitability, with PAT turning positive in FY26 and expected to grow by 39.1% in FY27.

• Leverage Reduction:

  • Net Debt/EBITDA is expected to moderate to 4-4.5x in three years, down from the current level of 8x or higher.
  • This reduction is attributed to improving EBITDA, higher tariffs, and increased non-aero income.

• Dividend Potential:

  • Hyderabad Airport is already FCF positive and upstreaming dividends to GAL.
  • Delhi Airport is projected to start giving dividends in 3-4 years.

• Investment Recommendation:

  • Jefferies recommends a BUY rating with a price target of INR100, representing a +24% increase from the current price of INR80.95.
  • The company is viewed as a growth opportunity with strong fundamentals and strategic initiatives.

• Valuation:

  • The valuation is based on a 27x FY27 EBITDA multiple.
  • The EV/EBITDA ratio is projected to decrease from 63x in FY22 to 22x in FY27.

Key Information

• Company Overview:

  • GMR Group is a leading private airport operator in India, with major airports in Delhi, Hyderabad, and Goa.
  • The company commands a ~27% market share in overall traffic.

• Market Risks:

  • Potential regulatory changes affecting tariffs.
  • Slowdown in air passenger traffic.
  • Macroeconomic downturns impacting consumer spending at airports.

• Valuation Methodology:

  • Ratings are based on market capitalization, growth, value, volatility, and expected total return over the next 12 months.
  • Price targets are derived from various methods including DCF, EBITDA, and EV/EBITDA.

• Ratings and Price Target History:

  • The company has a strong history of Buy ratings, with 60.51% of ratings in the past 12 months being Buy.
  • The price target has been consistently positive, indicating strong analyst confidence.

• Disclosure Notes:

  • Jefferies has potential conflicts of interest due to its business relationships with the companies it covers.
  • The report is intended as a general discussion and not tailored investment advice.
  • The report is subject to regulatory compliance and may not be suitable for all investors.

Financial Highlights

Investment Recommendation

• Rating: Buy
• Price Target: INR100 (+24% from current price)
• 52-Week High-Low: INR103.70 - INR67.75
• Market Cap: INR854.7B / $10.0B
• Ticker: GMRAIRPO IN

Analysts

• Prateek Kumar (Equity Analyst)
• Graham Hunt, CFA (Equity Analyst)
• Raghav Malik (Equity Associate)

This report outlines a positive outlook for GMR Airports, with a focus on growth strategies, financial improvements, and dividend potential. The Buy recommendation is based on strong revenue and EBITDA growth, as well as the company's strategic initiatives to enhance non-aero revenue and reduce leverage.