2025-06-17-Jefferies-CAAP（CAAP）_路演要点_10页_292kb

CAAP: Latin America Infrastructure Summary

Core Content

CAAP is a leading private airport operator in Latin America and Europe, managing over 50 airports. The company is heavily leveraged to Argentina, which accounts for approximately 60% of its EBITDA. The firm's recent investor roadshow in New York and Boston highlighted its strategic focus on long-term growth and capital allocation.

Main Views and Key Information

1. Investment Recommendation

• Rating: Buy
• Price Target: US$26.00
• Current Price: US$19.66
• Target Increase: +32% from current price
• YTD Performance: +5%
• Market Cap: US$3.2B
• EV/EBITDA 2026E: 5.6x, which is a 30% discount to the average for Latin American airports

2. Long-Term Growth Strategy

• CAAP is pursuing both organic and inorganic growth opportunities.
• Organic growth: Focused on Italy and Armenia.
• Inorganic growth: Includes airport concessions in Montenegro, Angola, and potentially Brazil and the Middle East.
• The Montenegro bid decision is expected in early July, while a revised proposal for Angola is being prepared.
• Management emphasized capital discipline, with a preference for dividends over buybacks once growth is achieved.

3. Capital Allocation

• Funding for M&A will come from a mix of internal funds, debt, and equity.
• CAAP maintains a conservative debt stance, with a current ND/EBITDA ratio of 1.1x.
• The company's strategy includes diversification and scale expansion to enhance long-term value.

4. Argentina Concession Rebalancing

• Ongoing contract renegotiation in Argentina remains a key investor focus.
• Current return in the concession is estimated at 12–13%, below the contractual 16.45% regulated real rate.
• Potential rebalancing strategies include a domestic tariff increase (currently at US$5/pax) and concession extension (currently expiring in 2038).
• International tariffs (US$57/pax) are unlikely to see significant increases due to their already high levels.

5. Traffic Growth Outlook

• CAAP expects continued healthy traffic trends across all regions.
• Argentina is anticipated to see c20% YoY growth in international traffic by year-end.
• Ecuador is an exception due to ongoing security concerns.

6. Valuation and Competitive Position

• CAAP's valuation is compelling, and the company is underperforming relative to Latin American airport peers (OMA, Asur & GAPB) which have seen +30% YTD growth.
• The firm is undervalued compared to the sector, with a discount of 30% in EV/EBITDA.
• Management believes operational performance improvements will help close the valuation gap.

Key Criteria for New Market Entry

• Trusted local partner
• Reliable legal recourse
• Government willing to engage with private operators

Investment Recommendation Risks

• Changes in Argentina's economic outlook
• Concession term changes
• Ability to fund expansion
• Recovery of concession imbalances
• Project execution risk (cost increases and delays)
• Increased competition potentially eroding returns

Analysts and Contact Information

• Alejandro Anibal Demichelis | +34 919498377 | ademichelis@jefferies.com
• Pedro Baptista | +44 (0) 207 029 8351 | pbaptista@jefferies.com
• Graham Hunt, CFA | +44 (0)20 7548 4251 | ghunt@jefferies.com
• Francisco Barbosa | +1 (212) 284-2197 | fbarbosa@jefferies.com

Investment Recommendation Methodology

Jefferies uses a combination of market capitalization, growth/value, volatility, and expected total return over the next 12 months to assign ratings. The price target for CAAP is based on a 6.6x EV/EBITDA 2027E multiple, aligned with the sector average.

Distribution and Jurisdictional Notes

• The report is distributed by Jefferies LLC in the United States and Jefferies Research Services, LLC for clients paying separately.
• In Canada, the report is for professional or institutional investors only.
• In Singapore, it is for accredited, expert, or institutional investors.
• In Dubai, it is for Professional Clients only.
• In Japan, it is for institutional investors only.
• In Hong Kong, it is for professional investors only.

Summary of Key Metrics

Analyst Certification

All analysts certify that the views expressed in the report reflect their personal opinions and that no compensation was directly or indirectly related to the report's recommendations.

Disclosure Notes

• Jefferies may have conflicts of interest due to its business relationships with companies in its research reports.
• The report is not tailored to any specific investor and should be considered as only one factor in investment decisions.
• Exchange rate fluctuations could impact the value of non-US denominated securities.