2025-06-15-Jefferies-安布贾水泥（ACEM）_2025年杰富瑞美国印度访问日要点_9页_331kb

India Building Materials: Ambuja Cements Equity Research Summary

Key Highlights & Recommendations

• Rating: BUY with a price target of INR700 (up 29% from current INR543.25).
• Valuation: Based on 19x FY27 EBITDA; EV/EBITDA multiple of 14x.

Growth Strategy

• Capacity Expansion:
  • Target to reach 100MTPA by FY26, 140MTPA by FY28.
  • Current capacity: 100MTPA (post recent milestones).
  • Achieved 100MTPA capacity by April 2025 via inorganic acquisitions including Sanghi, Orient, Penna.
  • New capacities: Bhatapara (4MTPA) by 1Q26, Jodhpur (3MTPA) by 3Q26, Maratha (4MTPA) by FY26 end.
• Demand Outlook:
  • Cement industry demand grew 6-7% YoY in Q4FY25; expected to recover to 7-8% in FY26.

Cost Optimization & Efficiency

• Target Savings: Achieve Rs450-500/T savings by FY28.
• Initiatives:
  • RE power investments (200MW solar, 99MW wind at Khavda site; target 1GW RE capacity by FY26).
  • Green power share to reach 60% by FY28.
  • Fly ash supply, marine efficiency, and logistics optimization.

Business Simplification

• Structure Update:
  • Amalgamate operating subsidiaries (e.g., Sanghi/Penna under ACEM).
  • Holding structure simplification to focus on ACC (~50%) and Orient (~47%).
  • Open offer for Orient Cement expected to conclude in 1-2 months.

Financial Performance

• EBITDA: Up 57.7% YoY in FY26E, reaching Rs1,013/t in FY26E.
• PAT/Profit Trend: YoY fluctuations; Adjusted PAT guidance improved from FY24 onwards.
• Volumes: Growth projected at 15-30% until FY25E.

Risks

• Delayed ramp-up of new capacity.
• Industry-wide capacity additions.
• Weaker demand in key regions.
• Cost escalation challenges.

Analyst Certification

• Prateek Kumar & Raghav Malik certify views reflect personal opinions and have no compensation ties to ratings.