2025-05-22-Jefferies-GMR机场（GMRAIRPO）_2025财年第四季度初步分析强劲的息税折旧摊销前利润表现_7页_157kb

报告摘要

GMR Airports 4QFY25 Summary

Core Content

GMR Airports Limited (GAL) reported strong EBITDA performance for 4QFY25, with EBITDA reaching Rs10.1bn, a $+24%$ increase YoY and $+2%$ increase QoQ, exceeding estimates of Rs9.4bn. For the full FY25, EBITDA stood at Rs37.7bn, reflecting a 27% YoY growth. Net sales increased by 17% YoY and 8% QoQ, driven by a $~10%$ rise in passenger traffic at GMR's domestic airport.

Key Financial Highlights

Net Sales: Rs28,633m in 4QFY25, up 17% YoY and 8% QoQ
Expenditure: Rs18,514m in 4QFY25, up 13.6% YoY and 11.4% QoQ
EBITDA: Rs10,119m in 4QFY25, up 23.9% YoY and 2% QoQ
EBITDA Margin: 35.3% in 4QFY25, up 196bps YoY
Other Income: Rs1,108m in 4QFY25, down 10.4% YoY
Interest: Rs9,552m in 4QFY25, up 16.1% YoY
Depreciation: Rs4,913m in 4QFY25, up 21.4% YoY
Pre-Ex PAT Loss: Rs3.3bn in 4QFY25, up YoY due to higher depreciation and interest costs
Reported PAT: Rs2.376bn in 4QFY25, down from Rs1.210bn in 4QFY24
EPS: Rs(0.4) in 4QFY25, down from Rs(0.2) in 4QFY24

Traffic Performance

DIAL (Delhi International Airport):
- 4QFY25: 20.6mn passengers, up 7.5% YoY
- FY25: 79.3mn passengers, up 7.6% YoY
- Domestic traffic: up 6.4% YoY
- International traffic: up 10.7% YoY
- Total income: up 24% YoY, driven by traffic and CPD income
GHIAL (Goa International Airport):
- 4QFY25: 7.8mn passengers, up 21.1% YoY
- FY25: 29.5mn passengers, up 17.7% YoY
- Domestic traffic: up 17.3% YoY
- International traffic: up 19.8% YoY

Strategic Developments

New Tariff Order: Effective from April 16, 2025, at DIAL, which is expected to significantly improve aero revenue, profitability, and cash flow generation at DIAL and GAL.
Minority Stake Acquisition: GMR Airports Ltd. completed the purchase of a 10% minority stake in DIAL from Fraport AG, increasing its shareholding from 64% to 74%.
Expansion into Adjacent Businesses:
- GAL will operate Delhi Duty Free starting July 2025.
- Hyderabad Duty Free operations will be taken over by GAL from Q2FY26.

Investment Recommendation

Rating: BUY
Price Target: INR92, which is a +5% increase from the current price of INR87.58
Market Cap: INR924.8B or $10.8B
Float: 52.4%

Valuation and Risks

Valuation Methodology: Based on 25x FY30 EBITDA, discounted at 12.5% for 4 years.
Downside Risks:
- Regulatory changes affecting airport tariffs
- Slowdown in air passenger traffic
- Macroeconomic slowdown impacting consumer spending
Fraport AG:
- Valued on a sum-of-the-parts basis
- Upside risks: improved passenger recovery, better-than-expected performance from Antalya JV
- Downside risks: increased competition from German airports, slowing industrial output in Germany

Analyst Certification

Both Prateek Kumar and Graham Hunt, CFA, certify that the views expressed in this report reflect their personal views and that their compensation is not directly tied to the report's recommendations.
Non-US analysts are not registered with FINRA and may not be subject to related restrictions.

Disclosure

Jefferies may have conflicts of interest due to its business relationships with companies mentioned in the report.
The report is intended for professional or institutional investors only.
No SEBI or NISM registration guarantees performance or returns.
Forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties.
The report is not tailored to individual investors and is not investment advice.