2025-06-14-Jefferies-靛蓝航空（INDIGO）_杰富瑞英国印度开放日2025要点_9页_398kb

India Airlines Equity Research: IndiGo Summary

Key Takeaways

• Rating & Target: Maintain BUY with price target of ₹6,300 (from current ₹5,262), implying 20% upside.
• Long-Term Outlook: Strong growth in Indian aviation driven by domestic travel, outbound tourism, and government initiatives. By 2044, India’s domestic RPKs could match current Chinese levels.
• Competitive Strength: Dominant domestic market share (60%), fuel-efficient fleet (Neo), and ~900 aircraft order book position for leadership.
• International Expansion: Focus on medium-haul (Europe) and long-haul (Americas starting 2026) routes, supported by new Airbus XLR and wide-body fleets.
• ESG Leadership: Best carbon emissions per ASK globally, driven by efficient fleet and sustainable ops.
• Valuation: Targeted 11x FY27 EBITDA multiple (EV/EBITDA from 34.7x FY23 to 9.3x FY27).

Financial Highlights

• Revenue Growth: Steady CAGR (8-15%) across FY22–27, driven by fleet expansion and yield improvement.
• Margins: EBITDA margin increased from 2.0% to >25%, aided by cost discipline and revenue optimization.
• Assets & Debt: Fleet size growing from ~400 aircraft in 2024 to 600+ by 2030. Net debt stabilizing post-FY26.

Investment Risks

• Crude/ATF price hikes, INR depreciation, supply chain normalization for Boeing.
• Potential headwinds from railway fare increases and geopolitical disruptions.

Summary Conclusion

IndiGo presents a strong growth story in the Indian aviation sector, underpinned by its low-cost model, fleet strategy, and international diversification. The BUY rating and ₹6,300 price target reflect confidence in its execution and market potential despite near-term challenges.