2025-06-16-Jefferies-杰富瑞2025年欧洲Money20_20实地考察关键要点_13页_1mb

报告摘要

Key Takeaways

Market Landscape

Positive Outlook: The European payments sector is assessed positively, with embedded finance and stablecoins becoming key growth drivers post-COVID.
Valuation Trends: Neo-payments (e.g., Adyen) trade at high multiples (up to 30-35x EV/EBITDA), while traditional acquirers are valued lower (6-8x). The sector trades at approximately 17x-19x EV/EBITDA forward, slightly below pre-COVID averages but above long-term lows.

Company Performance & Interviews

Adyen: CFO highlights EU momentum, reliance on maturing cohorts, and GBP-Software acquisition for minor upside. Potential for continued high growth but no mid-term ambitions before 2026.
Boku: Expanding its FX and treasury management solution to optimize internal flows and attract broader customers. Positive outlook on European expansion and profitability.
Shift4: Confirmed CEO role continues; Global Blue acquisition is tracking (Q3), but faced delays due to Finaro. Focus on expanding operations to Europe (e.g., German restaurants).
Traditional Players: Management (e.g., Viva, PayTR, Unzer) express confidence in growth, despite market-specific risks; WLN faces cautious stance, while others highlight challenges from compliance/regulation.

Emerging Themes

Embedded Finance & Stablecoins: Key focus areas, replacing pure crypto and specialized processors.
AI Adoption: Expected rapid integration of AI and stablecoin solutions within 3 years, exemplified by conference coverage.
KYC/E-commerce Importance: Handling new risks/integrations required for regulatory and customer trust.

Valuation & Catalysts

Neo-Players: Higher growth expectations and valuations (e.g., Adyen at 28x EV/EBITDA, Block at 19x).
Catalysts: Results from Pluxee (Q3 '25), Edenred (July '25), Boku (Sept '25), etc. Adyen’s FY25E-27E sales CAGR of +26% supports its high valuation.

Peer Group Comparisons

Growth-Value Alignment: Neo-play valuations align with high-growth narratives, contrasting with traditional firms trading around 10-15x EV/sales.
Profitability: Neo-play EBITDA margins around 50%, while traditional acquirers hover near 40%, driven by scale and scope.

Risks & Tailwinds

Tailwinds: EU payments integration, embedded finance scaling (e.g., Satispay targets meal voucher expansion), cross-border B2B payments growth drivers.
Risks: Regulatory shifts (e.g., payment methods and consumer data policies), competitive pressures, execution within stablecoin projects.

DCF Valuation & PAG

Adyen trades at 19x EV/EBITDA with a PAG driven by high sales growth. Future expectations require scrutiny, especially regarding macro risks (US consumer impact noted).

Announcements & Recommendations

Strong Buy: Adyen (Adyen), Block, WISE (consistent growth in PAG model).
Hold: Edenred, Fiserv, PayPal.
View by Analyst: Emphasizes Adyen and UK dual-listed companies (e.g., Firefish) within broader payment services framework.

Summary

The Jefferies report underscores the positive direction in the European payments sector, driven by innovation in embedded finance and stablecoins. Neo-play valuations reflect high growth expectations, with Adyen particularly highlighted. Traditional players face regulatory headwinds but benefit from scale, while mid-cap acquirers appear undervalued. Key catalysts include upcoming earnings (Pluxee, Boku) and AI/stablecoin adoption timelines.

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