2024-02-27-IEA-印度石油市场2030年展望（英）_70页_1mb

India Oil Market Outlook to 2030

Key Findings

1. India’s Role in Global Oil Markets

   • By 2030, India will account for >1.2 million barrels/day (mb/d) of oil demand growth, comprising over 33% of global demand growth (approx. 3.2 mb/d total gains).
   • Demand dominated by diesel/gasoil (combined 540 kb/d, 480 kb/d oil savings via EVs and efficiency), with jet fuel growing at 5.9% annually (low base).
   • India’s crude imports will rise from 4.6 mb/d (2023) to 5.8 mb/d by 2030, making it the world’s second-largest net crude importer.

2. Refining and Trade

   • Refining capacity to increase by 1 mb/d by 2030 (total ~6.8 mb/d), driven by 800kb/d upgrades, enabling higher light distillate exports.
   • Net crude importer status persists due to low domestic production (~700kb/d, falling to 540kb/d). Russia and Middle East remain key suppliers.
   • India is the fourth-largest middle distillates exporter, supplying Europe under sanctions.

3. Energy Transition

   • EVs will displace ~700 kb/d of oil by 2030, with diesel/gasoline benefits varying by sector.
   • Biofuels: Ethanol blending to reach 20% by 2025, supported by strong policies; biodiesel/biojet fuel gains remain limited (~90 kb/d).
   • Decarbonization challenges persist: India’s reliance on oil imports versus climate goals necessitates policy acceleration.

4. Energy Security

   • Current oil reserves equate to 66 days of net imports, with strategic reserves at ~9 days (Phase I); plans for Phase II capacity (47.7 mb) face delays.
   • Inventory gaps exist: Industry stocks ~58 days, but ~250 mb unreported, leaving vulnerability to disruptions.

Implications

India’s rapid economic growth drives oil demand, but energy security and climate goals require balancing imports with domestic production and renewables. The IEA projects India as a key player in reshaping global oil trade dynamics post-2030.