国际能源署-印度石油市场2030年展望（英）-2024.1-70页_1mb

Indian Oil Market Outlook to 2030 Summary

Overview

India's oil demand is set to increase significantly by 2030, making it the world's largest source of oil demand growth this decade, accounting for over one-third of global demand increases. This growth is driven by strong economic and demographic factors, positioning India as a key player in global oil markets despite its high import dependency.

Demand

• Key Drivers: Economic expansion, urbanization, industrialization, and a rising middle class fuel oil consumption. Road transport dominates, with diesel growth accounting for nearly half of India's demand increase, while jet fuel and gasoline show modest gains.
• By Product: Diesel leads growth due to industrial needs and vehicle fleet expansion. Biofuels and EVs are reducing oil consumption by about 0.5 mb/d in the 2023-2030 period. LPG demand is rising due to clean cooking initiatives like PMUY.

Supply and Trade

• Import Dependency: India relies on imports for over 90% of its oil needs, importing approximately 5.8 mb/d by 2030. Crude imports have shifted towards heavier, sour grades, with Russia and the Middle East being key sources.
• Refining: Refinery capacity is expanding by 1 mb/d to 6.8 mb/d by 2030, with increased focus on light and middle distillate production. India is a major exporter of these products, particularly to Europe, leveraging refinery complexity and market opportunities from disruptions like sanctions on Russian oil.
• Trade Dynamics: Global shifts, such as sanctions on Russian exports, have intensified India's role in supplying middle distillates to deficit regions, boosting its trade position but facing competition from other exporters.

Biofuels and Decarbonization

• Policies and Growth: India's National Policy on Biofuels mandates 20% ethanol blending by 2025, supported by subsidies and price guarantees, making it a global leader in ethanol production. Biofuels could reduce diesel use by supporting pathways like renewable diesel and bio-jet fuel.
• Challenges: Feedstock shortages risk ethanol blending targets, but diversification and increased production aim to address this. The government promotes the Global Biofuel Alliance to expand sustainable biofuel markets.

Energy Security

• Reserves and Imports: India's oil imports are rising, requiring enhanced emergency response systems. Current strategic petroleum reserves (SPR) hold about 26 mb, equivalent to 6.9 days of imports, with plans to expand SPR capacity to improve security against disruptions.
• Efficiency and Policy: Energy efficiency measures and biofuels aim to lower oil imports and consumption. However, the high import growth rate (to 1.2 mb/d increase by 2030) poses risks, necessitating stronger SPR implementation and policy coordination.

India's oil sector faces significant opportunities for growth but must accelerate decarbonization and energy security efforts to meet climate goals and sustain economic development.