2025-06-29-IEA-石油2025-到2030年的分析和预测（英）_152页_5mb

Oil Market Summary from "Oil 2025"

1. Global Uncertainty:

   • "Oil 2025" anticipates turbulent market conditions due to heightened geopolitical risks, unresolved trade tensions, and shifting policies. 2025 saw oil prices dip to four-year lows, with concerns over economic growth and investment climate prompting oil executives to reevaluate upstream priorities. Trade uncertainties and policy shifts are the main drivers of instability.

2. Demand:

   • Global oil demand is projected to increase by 2.5 million barrels per day (mb/d) to reach 105.5 mb/d by 2030. However, growth is heavily concentrated on a regional basis, with Asia-Pacific accounting for over half of the gains due to robust GDP expansion and increasing industrialization.
   • Net OECD demand will decline by 1.7 mb/d to 44.0 mb/d by 2030. This is driven by changing consumer preferences, increasing EV adoption, and technological transitions.
   • Petrochemical feedstocks are the dominant source of growth, driven by booming output of ethane, LPG, and other NGLs. Biofuels are also expanding rapidly, particularly in developing countries.

3. Supply:

   • OPEC+ crude oil capacity grows by 860 kb/d to reach 39.8 mb/d by 2030. Saudi Arabia leads the increase, contributing up to 390 kb/d more to the market.
   • Non-OPEC+ supply capacity expands by 3.2 mb/d through 2030, driven mainly by the US and Middle East. US production is expected to increase by 380 kb/d to 7.8 mb/d, primarily in NGLs and condensates.
   • "OPEC+ supply is projected to increase by a net 2 mb/d from 2024 to 2030. The group of eight OPEC+ countries – Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Algeria, and Kazakhstan – will increase capacity gains."

4. Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs):

   • NGLs supply grows steadily at 2% annually, reaching over 15 mb/d by 2030. Production is distributed evenly across global regions, with North America, Middle East, and Asia each playing significant roles.
   • Use in petrochemicals is expected to drive demand for ethane and LPG, particularly as countries like China and India scale up chemical complexes.

5. Refining:

   • Refining capacity increases by a robust 2 mb/d to reach 108.3 mb/d by 2030, with closures adding to net additions at a combined loss of 0.5 mb/d. Tighter margins and investment challenges will drive significant capacity rationalization in the coming decades.
   • Refined product demand will fall by 0.5 mb/d to 85.9 mb/d by 2030 due to declining demand for gasoline and diesel. Planning regions face the challenge of maintaining viability amid shifts in transportation and power generation trends.

For more detailed data and analysis based on this report, please refer to the full document.