2030年印度天然气市场报告_69页_3mb

Summary of India Gas Market Report (Outlook to 2030)

Core Content

The India Gas Market Report outlines the evolving role of natural gas in India's energy landscape, emphasizing its potential to significantly grow in the coming years. The report highlights the importance of infrastructure development, policy reforms, and the expansion of domestic and imported gas supplies in achieving this growth.

Main Trends and Forecasts

• Natural Gas Consumption: India's natural gas consumption is expected to grow by nearly 60% by 2030, reaching 103 bcm/yr, which would place it on par with Saudi Arabia's current gas consumption.
• Sectoral Growth Drivers: The growth will be led by City Gas Distribution (CGD), industrial demand, and power generation.
• Accelerated Growth Path: With targeted strategies and policy interventions, gas consumption could rise to 120 bcm/yr, matching South America's total consumption.
• Domestic Production: Domestic gas production, which met 50% of demand in 2023, is expected to grow only moderately, reaching 38 bcm/yr by 2030, an increase of about 8%.
• LNG Imports: LNG imports are projected to more than double between 2023 and 2030, reaching 64 bcm/yr, driven by the limited growth in domestic production and increasing demand.
• CBG Potential: India's compressed biogas (CBG) production potential is estimated at 87 bcm/yr, but current installed capacity is less than 1% of this potential. By 2030, CBG output could reach 0.8 bcm/yr.

Key Infrastructure Developments

• LNG Infrastructure: India's LNG regasification capacity has grown by 90% over the last decade, with 7 operational terminals and several under construction or planned. The Dahej terminal operates at full capacity, while Dabhol and Kochi face utilization challenges due to infrastructure and demand limitations.
• Pipeline Network: The gas transmission pipeline network is a key enabler of natural gas growth, with Gujarat having the most extensive network in the country.
• CGD Expansion: The CGD sector is expected to drive the majority of the growth in gas consumption, supported by CNG and PNG infrastructure expansion.

Policy and Market Reforms

• Government Policies: The Indian government has introduced several policy initiatives to support natural gas adoption, including LNG import terminals, CNG infrastructure, and CBG incentives.
• Regulatory Improvements: The regulatory framework for gas infrastructure could be further enhanced through market reforms to increase competition and affordability.
• Inter-fuel Competition: Natural gas competes with coal, oil, and renewables, and its price sensitivity is a key challenge in adoption. Competitive pricing is essential to support growth.

Challenges and Opportunities

• Challenges:
  • High LNG costs have limited competitiveness against coal.
  • Infrastructure gaps have constrained gas adoption in key sectors.
  • Implementation and enforcement issues persist in policy execution.
  • Seasonal and regional supply constraints affect LNG utilization.
• Opportunities:
  • Stranded gas-fired power plants could be utilised more effectively.
  • LNG adoption in transport could be accelerated.
  • CBG expansion offers a sustainable alternative and could be supported by government incentives.
  • Increased gas infrastructure and policy support could help achieve the 15% share target in the primary energy mix by 2030.

Conclusion

The report concludes that India is at an inflection point in its natural gas usage, with strong growth potential through 2030. While domestic production is expected to grow only modestly, LNG imports and CBG development will play crucial roles in meeting rising demand. Government support, infrastructure investment, and market reforms are essential to realising the full potential of natural gas in India's energy transition and achieving the 15% share target by 2030.