2025-02-23-IEA-印度天然气市场报告-2030年展望（英）_69页_3mb

India Gas Market Report Overview (Outlook to 2030)

Key Findings and Recommendations

1. Market Dynamics

• Global Context: India is transitioning toward a gas-based economy to reduce oil imports and meet climate goals.
• Domestic Production: Gas output peaked in 2010 but declined due to field depletions. Recent growth from deepwater fields (e.g., KG-D6) has stabilized supply, but production remains constrained.
• Demand Forecast: Natural gas consumption is projected to surge ~60% by 2030, reaching 103 bcm/yr or more under accelerated scenarios (e.g., 120 bcm/yr).
• Infrastructure: Rapid expansion of LNG terminals, pipelines, and CNG stations is underway, but utilization remains suboptimal in some regions.

2. Sectoral Demand Trends

• City Gas Distribution (CGD): Driven by CNG infrastructure and affordability, CGD is a top growth driver, with CNG consumption likely to triple by 2030.
• Power Generation: Gas-fired power plants (24 GW installed capacity) underutilized (avg.~15%); supportive policies aim to raise load factors ~30%.
• Transport: LNG adoption for heavy-duty vehicles is limited economically, but policy incentives could boost demand for heavy trucks.
• Pollution-Constrained Sectors: High-temperature gas HP/HT fields and stranded power plants offer significant growth potential for gas if supported by pricing reforms.

3. Infrastructure & Production

• LNG Imports: Gas demand will rely heavily on imports (64 bcm/yr by 2030), with domestic production growing only marginally (~8% by 2030).
• CBG Potential: Untapped CBG capacity could reach 0.8 bcm/yr (5% of tar sands production) by 2030 if policy hurdles cleared, supported by initiatives like GOBARdhan and SATAT.
• Gas Storage: Underground storage (UGS) could enhance supply security, but high costs may delay implementation.

4. Policy Recommendations

1. Full Gas Pricing Freedom: Lift price caps on all fields to incentivize investment and align supply with demand.
2. Third-Party Access: Strengthen infrastructure access (pipelines, LNG terminals) to foster competition and efficiency.
3. Carbon Pricing: Implement revenue-neutral carbon taxes to make gas competitive against coal.
4. NGV Promotion: Provide tax breaks for LNG trucks, set mandatory blending targets.
5. CBG Development: Offer land subsidies, streamline logistics, and enforce CBG complementary policies.

5. Challenges

• Upstream Investment: Deepwater projects face high costs and execution risks.
• Transmission Constraints: Pipeline and storage gaps limit demand growth in remote regions.
• Infrastructure Underutilization: Many terminals/ pipelines operate at <50% capacity, hindering supply responsiveness.

Conclusion: India’s gas sector is poised for transformative growth by 2030, driven by policy shifts and market reforms. Strategic interventions can amplify gas demand beyond current projections, supporting decarbonization and energy security.