2025-02-23-IEA-2025年石油市场2月报比较分析（英）_19页_367kb

报告摘要

IEF Comparative Analysis of Monthly Oil Market Reports Summary

Core Content

This document provides a comparative analysis of the global oil market forecasts from the International Energy Forum (IEF), the International Energy Agency (IEA), the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), and the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026. It highlights the differences in demand and supply growth projections, and outlines the evolving forecasts over time.

Main Views and Key Information

Demand Forecasts

OPEC maintains its global oil demand growth forecast for 2025 at 1.4 mb/d and expects it to continue at the same rate in 2026, driven by non-OECD countries.
IEA keeps its global oil demand growth forecast for 2024 at 0.9 mb/d and for 2025 at 1.1 mb/d, with the growth primarily coming from China, India, and other Asian emerging economies.
EIA revised its global oil demand growth forecast upward by 0.1 mb/d for 2025 to 1.4 mb/d year-over-year, but lowered it for 2026 to 1.0 mb/d.
India is expected to increase its oil demand by 0.3 mb/d in both 2025 and 2026, up from 0.2 mb/d in 2024.
The OECD demand remains relatively flat in both 2024 and 2025, with minimal changes in growth projections.

Supply Forecasts

OPEC revised its non-DoC liquids production and DoC NGLs growth forecast for 2025 downward by 0.1 mb/d to 1.1 mb/d year-over-year. In 2026, the growth is forecast to remain at 1.1 mb/d, but with a decline in Norway.
EIA projects an increase in non-OPEC supply growth for 2025 by 0.2 mb/d, and for 2026 by 0.3 mb/d, driven by the US, Canada, Brazil, and Guyana.
IEA projects a decline in non-OPEC and non-DoC supply growth for 2025 to 1.5 mb/d and 1.4 mb/d, respectively, with growth mainly from the US, Canada, and Guyana.
The gap in non-OPEC supply growth forecasts between EIA and OPEC exceeds 0.6 mb/d in 2025, and between EIA and IEA is about 0.3 mb/d.
The US crude production is expected to rise to 13.6 mb/d in 2025 and 13.7 mb/d in 2026, according to the EIA.

Divergence and Alignment

There is a significant divergence in global demand growth forecasts between OPEC, IEA, and EIA, especially in non-OECD countries, where the difference exceeds 0.5 mb/d.
OPEC and IEA show a slight increase in non-OECD demand forecasts for 2025, with IEA's forecast rising by 0.1 mb/d.
The IEA and EIA show more alignment on US supply growth, but divergence remains in non-DoC supply forecasts.
"Call on DoC crude" is a calculation, not a forecast of actual production, and represents the amount OPEC+ would need to produce to balance global supply and demand.

2024 Outlook Comparison

IEA revised its global demand growth forecast downward by 0.1 mb/d to 0.9 mb/d.
EIA raised its non-OPEC supply growth forecast for 2024 by 0.2 mb/d.

2025 Outlook Comparison

OPEC maintains its global demand growth forecast at 1.4 mb/d for 2025.
IEA increased its non-OECD demand growth forecast by 0.1 mb/d to 1.14 mb/d.
EIA projects a non-OPEC supply growth of 1.2 mb/d for 2025, up from 1.0 mb/d in the previous month.
The gap in "call on DoC crude" between OPEC and EIA reaches 3.5 mb/d in Q4 2025.

2026 Outlook Comparison

OPEC forecasts global demand growth to remain at 1.4 mb/d for 2026.
EIA revised its non-OPEC supply growth forecast upward for 2026 by 0.3 mb/d to 1.2 mb/d.

Key Data Points

OPEC's 2025 demand growth is 1.4 mb/d, unchanged from last month.
IEA's 2025 demand growth is 1.1 mb/d, increased by 0.1 mb/d from the previous quarter.
EIA's 2025 demand growth is 1.4 mb/d, slightly adjusted from previous months.
Non-OECD demand growth in 2025 is expected to be 1.1 mb/d for IEA and 1.0 mb/d for EIA.
Non-OPEC supply growth in 2025 is projected at 1.4 mb/d by IEA and 1.6 mb/d by EIA.
Non-DoC supply growth in 2025 is 1.1 mb/d for IEA and 1.1 mb/d for EIA, with OPEC projecting 1.1 mb/d.
EIA's non-OPEC supply growth for 2026 is 1.2 mb/d, with US, Brazil, and Canada as key drivers.
Global stock changes are only forecasted by EIA, with the IEA not providing such data.

Notes

Data discrepancies may arise from different reporting conventions, such as biofuels and processing gains.
IEF conducts a comparative analysis to inform the IEA-IEF-OPEC Symposium.
Monthly reports from IEA, OPEC, and EIA are compared to provide insights into evolving market perspectives.

Appendix: IEF Release Schedule

Month	IEF	IEA	OPEC	EIA
January	Thu, 16 Jan	Wed, 15 Jan	Wed, 15 Jan	Tue, 14 Jan
February	Thu, 13 Feb	Thu, 13 Feb	Wed, 12 Feb	Tue, 11 Feb
March	Thu, 13 Mar	Thu, 13 Mar	Wed, 12 Mar	Tue, 11 Mar
April	Tue, 15 Apr	Tue, 15 Apr	Mon, 14 Apr	Tue, 8 Apr
May	Thu, 15 May	Thu, 15 May	Wed, 14 May	Tue, 6 May
June	Tue, 17 Jun	Tue, 17 Jun	Mon, 16 Jun	Tue, 10 Jun
July	Tue, 15 Jul	Fri, 11 Jul	Tue, 15 Jul	Tue, 8 Jul
August	Wed, 13 Aug	Wed, 13 Aug	Tue, 12 Aug	Tue, 12 Aug
September	Thu, 11 Sep	Thu, 11 Sep	Thu, 11 Sep	Tue, 9 Sep
October	Tue, 14 Oct	Tue, 14 Oct	Mon, 13 Oct	Tue, 7 Oct
November	Thu, 13 Nov	Thu, 13 Nov	Wed, 12 Nov	Wed, 12 Nov
December	Thu, 11 Dec	Thu, 11 Dec	Thu, 11 Dec	Tue, 9 Dec