海外宏观：期限溢价对美债影响有限，但存在不确定性-240530-湘财证券-19页_1mb

美债期限溢价影响分析与投资展望总结

核心观点

美债期限溢价成为影响美债的关键因素，预计年内美国将在11月降息一次，且年内美债供给平缓，需求稳健。美债收益率在此背景下呈现波动，未来可关注降息窗口下的逢高配置机会。

分析内容

• 期限溢价影响美债收益率
  2023年下半年美债长端收益率上涨主要由期限溢价推动。2023年财政赤字扩大、债务上限问题解决导致发债规模大幅增加，进而推高期限溢价。然而，当前美国TGA账户余额较充足，且尚未出现供需严重失衡的情况，因此短期内期限溢价对收益率的影响有不确定性。

• 降息预期与美债走势
  Despite economic indicators showing weakening in retail sales and consumer confidence, gradual improvement in inflation data is expected. The interest rate is expected to be cut for the first time in 11 months in June, influenced by persistent inflation and geopolitical tensions. According to the report, the 10-year Treasury yield may rise to 46%-48% by the end of the second quarter, then fall back to 44%-46% by year-end. In 2025, if the fiscal deficit growth exceeds expectations, the yield could experience upward pressure due to term premium risks, but Fed rate cuts are expected to keep yields from surpassing previous highs.

• 投资建议
  Considering the elevated Treasury yields, it is recommended to consider positioning during the upcoming rate cuts window in 2024. Digital assets with high liquidity may continue to offer opportunities in the context of low traditional market returns.

风险提示

1. 地缘冲突升级；
2. 核心通胀超预期；
3. 就业市场持续强劲等。

总结

Market analysis indicates that the U.S. economy shows slow pace recovery, with inflation remaining persistently sticky. Supportive policies for fiscal deficits and geopolitical tensions add uncertainty to the outlook. Bond investors should remain selective and focus on volatility arbitrage opportunities in the Treasury yield curve.