2018全球市场十大主题（英文版）_15页_522kb

Summary of Global Markets Analyst Report: Top Ten Market Themes for 2018

Core Content

This report outlines the key market themes and investment outlook for 2018, emphasizing a cautiously optimistic stance across global asset classes. It highlights the potential for continued growth, gradual monetary policy normalization, and the relative performance of emerging markets and currencies, while also acknowledging the risks of market drawdowns and policy uncertainties.

Main Themes and Key Points

1. Global Growth: Stable and Synchronized

• Growth Outlook: The global economy is expected to maintain a stable and synchronized growth trajectory, with real GDP growth forecasted at around 4% for both 2017 and 2018.
• Asset Implications: Pro-cyclical assets are likely to benefit, with inflation and bond yields gradually rising.
• DM vs. EM: While developed markets may experience a slight slowdown due to growth above potential, emerging markets have more room for expansion.

2. DM Monetary Policy: No Motive for Murder

• Inflation Environment: Inflation expectations are well-anchored, reducing the urgency for aggressive tightening.
• Fed Policy: The Fed is expected to raise rates gradually, with nine more hikes by the end of 2019, which is more than market expectations but still considered a dovish cycle.
• Policy Credibility: Central banks are more focused on deflation risks than inflation, leading to a more cautious approach in policy tightening.

3. Drawdown Risk: Bear-Market Warning Signs

• Bear Market Risk: The S&P 500 is in its fifth-longest streak without a 5% correction, raising concerns about drawdown risk.
• Risk Factors: High valuations and potential for wage inflation without price inflation are key risks.
• Correction Outlook: A 68% chance of a correction in the next 12 months, but corrections without recessions are more likely to bounce.

4. Emerging Markets: More Room for Growth

• Growth Potential: EM economies are expected to outperform due to improved macro fundamentals and external conditions.
• Supporting Factors: Reduced current account deficits, inflation targeting, and improved financial conditions.
• FX Outlook: EM currencies are favored, with a forecast of 7% total returns. BRL and INR are highlighted for their potential.

5. China: A Well-Managed Slowdown

• Growth Forecast: China's real GDP growth is expected to slow to 6.5% in 2018 from 6.8% in 2017.
• Policy Approach: The slowdown is policy-led and managed, reducing the risk of global shocks.
• FX and Commodities: The slowdown is expected to be measured, supporting EM FX and commodities.

6. Global FX: Soggy Dollar

• USD Performance: Despite Fed rate hikes, the USD is expected to remain weak due to global growth and the "soggy dollar" narrative.
• EM Currencies: EM currencies are likely to benefit from a weaker USD, with BRL and TRY showing strong potential.
• EUR/JPY: The EUR/JPY cross is forecast to rise, reflecting the undervalued Euro and the accommodative Yen.

7. US Policy Risks: If It Rains It May Pour

• Tax Reform: The success of tax reform is a key policy risk, with an 80% chance of passage in early 2018.
• Trade Policy: Trade tensions, especially with China, could be a result of failed tax reform, leading to more assertive trade policies.
• NAFTA Impact: A US withdrawal from NAFTA could negatively impact the Mexican peso and broader EM markets.

8. Bond Term Premia: Gradual Normalization

• Term Premium: Historically low and even negative in some major markets, reflecting central bank interventions.
• Normalization Outlook: The term premium is expected to gradually rebuild as central banks reduce bond purchases and ease monetary support.
• Spillovers: The international spillovers of term premium are higher now than in the past two decades.

9. Europe Risk: Preparing for a Post-Draghi Euro Area

• Leadership Transition: 2018 is a pivotal year for Europe, with the end of Draghi's ECB leadership and potential political changes.
• EMU Stability: Breakup risk has declined to pre-crisis levels, but institutional reforms are still pending.
• Reforms: Two categories of reforms are highlighted: risk reduction for weaker peripherals and risk sharing among member states.

10. Late-Cycle Imbalances: Illiquidity Is the New Leverage

• Imbalances: Late-cycle imbalances are more likely to manifest as illiquidity rather than leverage.
• Market Risks: The report suggests that while growth is stable, imbalances could lead to market stress, particularly in FX and credit markets.
• Asset Allocation: The report recommends a pro-growth stance with a focus on EM equities and credit, and caution in US High Yield.

Key Investment Recommendations

• Equities: Overweight EM equities due to more room for growth and compressed risk premia.
• Credit: Favor EM credit over US High Yield due to stronger growth prospects.
• Rates: Recommend being short 10-year US Treasuries to capture the normalization of bond term premium.
• FX: Long EUR/JPY and EM currencies like BRL, TRY, INR, and IDR.
• Commodities: Expect continued support for commodities due to stable China growth and global expansion.

Conclusion

The report presents a cautiously optimistic view for 2018, with a focus on EM outperformance, gradual normalization of monetary policy, and the risk of market drawdowns. It underscores the importance of monitoring policy developments, particularly in the US and Europe, and the potential for continued global growth despite late-cycle challenges.