高盛-2018全球市场十大主题（英文）-20171116-17页_567kb

2018 Global Markets Summary: Late-Cycle Optimism

Core Content

This document outlines the top ten market themes for 2018 from Goldman Sachs Global Markets analysts, emphasizing late-cycle optimism. Despite concerns about potential market corrections, the analysis suggests that the risk of a recession is low, and the economic expansion is expected to continue. The focus is on stable global growth, gradual monetary policy normalization, and opportunities in emerging markets (EM) and specific asset classes.

Main Themes and Key Points

1. Global Growth: Stable and Synchronized

• Forecast: Global growth is expected to remain stable and synchronized in 2018, with real GDP growth of around 4%.
• Supporting Factors:
  • Strong growth momentum.
  • Easing global financial conditions.
  • Accommodative monetary policy globally.
  • US fiscal stimulus likely to continue.
• Risks:
  • Slight moderation in developed market (DM) growth due to overperformance relative to potential.
  • EM growth has more room and is more synchronized, supporting a pro-growth environment.

2. DM Monetary Policy: No Motive for Murder

• Inflation and Expectations: Inflation expectations are well-anchored, reducing the need for aggressive rate hikes.
• Fed Policy: The Fed is expected to hike rates gradually, with nine more quarter-point increases by the end of 2019.
• Comparison to Past: This cycle is considered more dovish than previous ones, as central banks are more focused on deflation risks than inflation.

3. Drawdown Risk: Bear-Market Warning Signs

• Bear Market Indicator: Signals a 68% chance of a correction in the next 12 months.
• Drawdown Risks:
  • High valuations reduce the cushion for shocks.
  • Rising wage inflation and low productivity growth may pressure US profit margins.
  • The removal of quantitative easing (QE) could pose psychological risks.
• Mitigation: Corrections without recession tend to be short-lived, and a strong macro backdrop reduces the likelihood of a bear market.

4. Emerging Markets: More Room for Growth

• Growth Outlook: EM growth is expected to outperform DM, with more room for expansion.
• Supporting Factors:
  • Improved external balances and cyclical fundamentals.
  • Strong global trade growth supports EM trade-sensitive assets.
  • FDI inflows are stabilizing, and EM financial conditions have turned positive.
• FX Outlook: EM currencies are expected to benefit from a weaker USD, with potential for strong returns in ZAR and TRY.

5. China: A Well-Managed Slowdown

• Growth Forecast: China's real GDP growth is expected to slow to 6.5% in 2018 from 6.8% in 2017.
• Policy Approach: The slowdown is policy-led and carefully managed, reducing the risk of global shocks.
• FX Outlook: China's currency is expected to depreciate gradually, avoiding a 2015/2016-style disruption.
• Commodity Impact: Stable Chinese growth supports commodity prices, which in turn benefit commodity-related EM equities and currencies.

6. Global FX: Soggy Dollar

• USD Outlook: A weaker USD is expected due to the Fed's gradual tightening and strong global growth.
• EM FX Benefits: EM currencies are likely to outperform, especially against the USD, with total returns forecast at 7%.
• EUR/JPY: EUR is expected to outperform JPY, with the cross approaching cyclical highs.
• GBP: Downside risks remain due to Brexit and political instability.

7. US Policy Risks: If It Rains It May Pour

• Tax Reform: High probability (80%) of successful passage in early 2018, which could improve the political position for NAFTA renegotiation.
• Trade Policy: Trade tensions, particularly with China, are a risk if tax reform fails.
• NAFTA Impact: A US withdrawal from NAFTA could negatively affect the Mexican peso and broader EM markets.

8. Bond Term Premia: Gradual Normalization

• Term Premium: Historically low or negative, driven by central bank policies and weak inflation.
• Normalization: Expected to gradually improve as inflation rises and central banks reduce QE.
• Recommendation: Short 10-year US Treasuries to capture the normalization of term premiums.

9. European Risk: Preparing for a Post-Draghi Euro area

• ECB Policy: The ECB is expected to end net bond purchases, leading to a gradual normalization of monetary policy.
• Euro Valuation: The Euro is seen as undervalued and under-owned, with improved macro fundamentals.

10. Late-Cycle Imbalances: Illiquidity Is the New Leverage

• Imbalances: While the labor market shows some stretched conditions, they are not severe.
• Market Psychology: Illiquidity and low risk premia are key concerns, but the macro environment supports continued market resilience.

Key Recommendations

• Equities: Overweight EM equities due to more growth potential and lower valuations.
• Credit: Long EM credit versus US High Yield, as EM growth is more sustainable.
• FX: Long EUR/JPY and EM currencies, especially ZAR and TRY.
• Bonds: Short 10-year US Treasuries to capture term premium normalization.
• Asset Allocation: Remain long risk assets rather than timing the market, as corrections without recession are likely to be short-lived.

Conclusion

The 2018 market outlook is cautiously optimistic, with a focus on the sustainability of global growth, the gradual normalization of monetary policy, and the potential for EM outperformance. While risks such as drawdowns and policy shifts exist, the macro environment supports a pro-growth and pro-risk asset stance.