那提西银行-全球-宏观经济-美国是对全球经济增长的威胁吗？-20180529-8页_854kb

Flash Economics Summary

Core Content

This document, titled Flash Economics, published on 29 May 2018, analyzes the potential threats that new U.S. economic and international policies may pose to global growth. It outlines three main risks associated with these policies and discusses their implications on emerging countries, corporate investment, and global energy markets.

Main Risks to Global Growth

1. Deterioration in the Situation of Emerging Countries

• Monetary Policy Normalisation: The U.S. is raising interest rates, which could lead to capital outflows from emerging markets.
• Rising Risk Aversion: Geopolitical tensions and U.S. policies have increased risk aversion, potentially causing investors to pull capital from emerging economies.
• Capital Outflows: Charts show that capital is already beginning to flow out of emerging countries.
• Consequences: These outflows may lead to:
  • Exchange rate depreciation.
  • Increased inflation and interest rates.
  • Reduced economic growth in these countries.

2. Rising Borrowing Costs for Companies

• Risk Premia Increase: Companies in OECD countries are paying higher risk premia on their financing (equities and bonds).
• Impact on Investment: Higher borrowing costs may discourage corporate investment, especially in the euro zone.
• Current Situation: While the downturn in investment is not yet expected, the trend is concerning.

3. Rising Oil Prices

• Geopolitical Tensions: Increased tensions in the Middle East and U.S. sanctions on Iran have driven up oil prices.
• Negative Impact: Higher oil prices negatively affect growth in:
  • OECD countries (due to increased energy import costs).
  • Non-oil-producing emerging countries (due to loss of real income).
• Energy Imports: Charts show that energy import costs are rising significantly in these regions.

Key Information

• The U.S. is pursuing a combination of monetary tightening, expansionary fiscal policy, immigration curbs, protectionism, and geopolitical measures.
• These policies are contributing to global economic uncertainty and increasing risk aversion.
• The three main risks identified are:
  • Negative impact on capital flows to emerging countries.
  • Increased corporate borrowing costs, affecting investment.
  • Rising oil prices, which reduce real income and growth in many countries.
• The document emphasizes that these risks are already manifesting in the current economic environment.

Conclusion

• The document concludes that the U.S. policies may indeed be a threat to global growth.
• It highlights that capital outflows, rising risk premia, and oil price increases are already observable trends.
• However, it also notes that the extent of the impact will depend on how these developments evolve.

Disclaimer

• The document is intended for professional and qualified investors only.
• It is strictly confidential and cannot be shared without prior written consent from Natixis.
• It is not a personalized investment recommendation and does not constitute financial advice.
• No liability is accepted by Natixis or its affiliates for the information or recommendations provided.
• The statements and assumptions in the document are based on public information and may be subject to change.
• Regulatory compliance is emphasized, with the document being subject to different legal requirements in various jurisdictions.

Regulatory Information

• Natixis is supervised by the European Central Bank (ECB) and authorized in France by the ACPR.
• It is regulated by the Autorité des Marchés Financiers in France, the FCA and PRA in the UK, and other authorities in Germany, Spain, Italy, and the UAE.
• In the U.S., the document is distributed only to major institutional investors and is not available to the general public.

Risk Factors

• The views expressed in the report reflect the personal opinions of the authors.
• The document does not guarantee future performance or outcomes.
• No responsibility is accepted for the accuracy or completeness of the information provided.