2018全球市场十大主题_17页

2018 Global Market Themes Summary: Late-Cycle Optimism

Core Content

Goldman Sachs' Global Markets Analysts outline the top ten market themes for 2018, emphasizing a late-cycle optimism outlook. Despite concerns about potential market corrections, the analysts believe the likelihood of a recession is low, and the current expansion is likely to continue. The report highlights a stable and synchronized global growth, gradual monetary policy normalization, emerging markets (EM) with more room for growth, and a soggy Dollar due to accommodative global conditions.

Main Themes and Key Points

1. Global Growth: Stable and Synchronized

• Expectation: Global growth is expected to remain stable and synchronized across regions.
• Forecast: Real global growth of around 4% in 2017 and 2018.
• Supporting Factors: Strong growth momentum, eased financial conditions, and accommodative monetary policy.
• Risks: Slight slowdown in developed markets (DMs), but EM growth is likely to offset this, supporting a broadly pro-growth environment.

2. DM Monetary Policy: No Motive for Murder

• Expectation: Central banks are unlikely to over-tighten and end the expansion prematurely.
• Reason: Inflation expectations are well-anchored, reducing the need for preemptive tightening.
• Fed Outlook: The Fed is expected to hike rates gradually, with four hikes in 2018.
• Conclusion: This is one of the most dovish hiking cycles in post-war history, with a low risk of 'involuntary manslaughter' of the business cycle.

3. Drawdown Risk: Bear-Market Warning Signs

• Expectation: Drawdown risk remains elevated despite low recession risk.
• Indicators: S&P 500 has had the fifth-longest streak without a 5% correction since 1929.
• Bear Market Risk: Equity strategy teams forecast a 68% chance of entering a bear market over the next 12 months.
• Mitigation: Low-volatility regimes tend to be persistent and may reduce drawdown risk if macroeconomic conditions remain stable.

4. Emerging Markets: More Room for Growth

• Expectation: EM growth is expected to outperform DM growth in 2018.
• Supporting Factors: Improved macro fundamentals, stronger global trade, and stabilization of FDI inflows.
• Outlook: EM equities, credit, and FX are seen as favorable, with strong fundamentals and exposure to global growth.
• Currency Forecast: EM currencies like INR, IDR, ZAR, and TRY are expected to outperform, with BRL as a middle ground due to improved macro conditions.

5. China: A Well-Managed Slowdown

• Expectation: China is expected to experience a managed slowdown in 2018, with real GDP growth slowing to 6.5% from 6.8%.
• Policy Focus: The slowdown is policy-led, with an emphasis on sustainability, inequality reduction, and risk control.
• FX Outlook: China's currency is expected to depreciate gradually, with less risk of a 2015/2016-style disruption.
• Commodities: Stable China growth supports global commodity prices, which in turn benefit EM economies.

6. Global FX: Soggy Dollar

• Expectation: The US Dollar is expected to remain weak, with a 'soggy' performance.
• Reason: Despite US rate hikes, global growth and accommodative monetary policy are expected to limit Dollar appreciation.
• EM Currencies: EM currencies are expected to benefit, with forecasted total returns of 7% over 12 months.
• EUR/JPY: The EUR/JPY pair is expected to rise, reflecting the undervalued Euro and weak Yen.

7. US Policy Risks: If It Rains It May Pour

• Expectation: US tax reform is a top policy risk, with an 80% chance of passage in early 2018.
• Trade Policy: If tax reform fails, trade tensions may escalate, especially with China.
• NAFTA: A potential US withdrawal from NAFTA could negatively impact the Mexican peso.
• Political Risk: The administration may use trade policy as a political tool if domestic reforms stall.

8. Bond Term Premia: Gradual Normalization

• Expectation: Term premia in government bonds are expected to gradually normalize.
• Current State: Term premia are historically low and even negative in some markets.
• Reason: Central banks’ QE and negative rates have suppressed yields.
• Policy Shifts: The Fed and ECB are expected to reduce their QE programs, leading to a gradual increase in term premia.

9. European Risk: Preparing for a Post-Draghi Euro Area

• Expectation: The ECB's policy under Draghi is expected to shift, with a focus on gradual policy normalization.
• Euro Valuation: The Euro is undervalued and under-owned, with a positive outlook for Euro area assets.
• Yen Correlation: The Yen is expected to remain closely correlated with global bond yields.

10. Late-Cycle Imbalances: Illiquidity Is the New Leverage

• Expectation: Illiquidity risks are emerging as the new form of leverage in late-cycle markets.
• Market Sentiment: The removal of QE may pose psychological risks to investors.
• Asset Allocation: The report recommends remaining overweight in EM equities and credit while underweight in US bonds.

Key Recommendations

• Equities: Focus on EM equities due to more room for growth and earnings expansion.
• Credit: Long EM credit versus US High Yield due to better growth prospects.
• FX: Long EUR/JPY and EM currencies, especially INR, IDR, ZAR, and TRY.
• Bonds: Short 10-year US Treasuries to capture term premium normalization.
• Strategy: Continue with a 'buy the dip' approach, as corrections without recession are likely to be short-lived.

Conclusion

The 2018 outlook is cautiously optimistic, with a focus on pro-growth assets, gradual policy normalization, and managed risks in EM and China. Despite concerns about market valuations and potential corrections, the analysts believe that the macroeconomic environment remains supportive, and the long-term growth trajectory is favorable. The emphasis is on diversification, risk management, and long-term positioning in EM and high-yield credit.